Inkinga yamandla iya iba yimbi ngokufika kwamakhaza ashubisa umnkantsha, ukunikezwa kwamandla emhlabeni jikelele kuzwakalise umsindo
Muva nje, igesi yemvelo isiyimpahla ekhuphuke kakhulu kulo nyaka. Idatha yemakethe ibonisa ukuthi ngonyaka odlule, intengo ye-LNG e-Asia inyuke cishe ngama-600%; ukwanda kwegesi yemvelo eYurophu kushaqisa nakakhulu. Inani ngoJulayi likhuphuke ngaphezu kwe-1,000% uma liqhathaniswa noMeyi wonyaka odlule; ngisho ne-United States, ecebile ngemithombo yegesi yemvelo, ayikwazi ukubekezelela. , Intengo kaphethiloli yake yafika ezingeni eliphezulu kakhulu eminyakeni eyi-10 edlule.
Ngesikhathi esifanayo, uwoyela wenyuka waze wafika ezingeni eliphakeme kakhulu eminyakeni eminingana. Kusukela ngo-9:10 ngo-Okthoba 8, isikhathi sase-Beijing, ikusasa likawoyela ongahluziwe we-Brent lenyuke ngaphezu kuka-1% laya ku-$82.82 ngomphongolo, inani eliphakeme kakhulu kusukela ngo-Okthoba 2018. Ngalo lolo suku, ikusasa likawoyela ongahluziwe we-WTI lenyuke ngempumelelo i-US$78/umphongolo, okokuqala ngqa kusukela ngoNovemba 2014.
Abanye abahlaziyi bakholelwa ukuthi inkinga yezamandla ingase ibe nkulu kakhulu njengoba kufika ubusika obushubile, obuhlaba umkhosi ngenkinga yamandla emhlabeni wonke.
Ngokombiko we- “Economic Daily”, isilinganiso senani likagesi we-wholesale eSpain nasePortugal ekuqaleni kuka-September cishe laliphindwe kathathu inani lesilinganiso ezinyangeni eziyisithupha ezedlule, kuma-euro angu-175 MWh ngayinye; intengo kagesi we-wholesale ye-TTF yaseDutch yayingama-euro angama-74.15 i-MWh ngayinye. izikhathi ezi-4 ngaphezu kuka-March; Amanani kagesi e-UK afinyelele irekhodi eliphezulu lama-euro angu-183.84.
Ukukhuphuka okuqhubekayo kwentengo yegesi yemvelo “kuyimbangela” yenkinga kagesi yaseYurophu. I-Chicago Mercantile Exchange Henry Hub yekusasa legesi yemvelo kanye nekusasa legesi yemvelo ye-Dutch Title Transfer Centre (TTF) yizinkomba ezimbili eziyinhloko zentengo yegesi yemvelo emhlabeni. Njengamanje, amanani enkontileka ka-Okthoba kokubili afinyelele eqophelweni eliphezulu kakhulu lonyaka. Idatha ibonisa ukuthi amanani egesi yemvelo e-Asia akhuphuke izikhathi ezingu-6 ngonyaka odlule, iYurophu ikhuphuke izikhathi ezingu-10 ezinyangeni ezingu-14, futhi amanani e-United States afinyelele iphuzu lawo eliphakeme kakhulu eminyakeni eyi-10.
Umhlangano wongqongqoshe be-EU ngasekupheleni kukaSepthemba udingide ngqo udaba lokukhuphuka kwentengo yegesi yemvelo nogesi. Ongqongqoshe bavumile ukuthi isimo samanje “sisesimeni esibucayi” futhi basola isimo esingejwayelekile sokunyuka kwentengo yegesi yemvelo ngama-280% kulo nyaka ngezinga eliphansi lokugcina igesi yemvelo kanye nokuhlinzekwa kweRussia. Izithiyo, ukukhiqizwa kwamandla avuselelekayo aphansi kanye nomjikelezo wempahla ngaphansi kokwehla kwamandla emali kuwuchungechunge lwezici.
Amanye amazwe angamalungu e-EU enza ngokuphuthumayo izindlela zokuvikela abathengi: ISpain ixhasa abathengi ngokunciphisa amanani kagesi kanye nokubuyisela izimali ezinkampanini ezisizayo; I-France ihlinzeka ngoxhaso lwamandla kanye nokukhululwa kwentela kumakhaya ampofu; I-Italy neGreece icubungula uxhaso Noma ukubeka amanani entengo kanye nezinye izinyathelo zokuvikela izakhamuzi emthelela wokukhuphuka kwezindleko zikagesi, kuyilapho kuqinisekisa ukusebenza okuvamile komkhakha womphakathi.
Kodwa inkinga iwukuthi igesi yemvelo iyingxenye ebalulekile yesakhiwo samandla saseYurophu futhi incike kakhulu ezintweni zaseRussia. Lokhu kwencika sekuyinkinga enkulu emazweni amaningi uma amanani entengo ephezulu.
I-International Energy Agency ikholelwa ukuthi emhlabeni jikelele, izinkinga zokunikezwa kwamandla zingase zisakazeke futhi zihlale isikhathi eside, ikakhulukazi esimweni sezimo eziphuthumayo ezihlukahlukene ezibangela ukulimala kochungechunge lokuhlinzeka kanye nokunciphisa ukutshalwa kwe-fuel fuel ekuphenduleni ukuguquka kwesimo sezulu.
Njengamanje, amandla avuselelekayo aseYurophu awakwazi ukugcwalisa igebe lesidingo samandla. Idatha ibonisa ukuthi kusukela ngo-2020, imithombo yamandla avuselelekayo yaseYurophu ikhiqize ugesi wama-38% we-EU, idlula amafutha ezinsalela okokuqala emlandweni, futhi isibe umthombo oyinhloko kagesi eYurophu. Kodwa-ke, ngisho nasezimweni zezulu ezivumayo kakhulu, amandla omoya namandla elanga awakwazi ukukhiqiza ugesi owanele ukuhlangabezana no-100% wesidingo sonyaka.
Ngokocwaningo olwenziwa yi-Bruegel, isikhungo socwaningo esikhulu se-EU, esikhathini esifushane kuya esimaphakathi, amazwe e-EU azoqhubeka nokubhekana nezinkinga zamandla ngaphambi kokuthi kuthuthukiswe amabhethri amakhulu okugcina amandla avuselelekayo.
IBrithani: ukuntuleka kukaphethiloli, ukuntuleka kwabashayeli!
Ukukhuphuka kwentengo yegesi yemvelo nakho kwenze kwaba nzima e-UK.
Ngokwemibiko, intengo ye-wholesale yegesi yemvelo e-UK ikhuphuke ngaphezu kuka-250% phakathi nonyaka, futhi abahlinzeki abaningi abangakasayini izinkontileka zamanani entengo yesikhathi eside baye balahlekelwa kakhulu ngenxa yokukhuphuka kwamanani entengo.
Kusukela ngo-Agasti, izinkampani ezingaphezu kweshumi nambili zegesi yemvelo noma zamandla e-UK ziye zamemezela ngokulandelana ukuthi ziqothuka noma ziphoqeleka ukuthi zivale amabhizinisi azo, okuholele emakhasimendeni angaphezu kwezigidi eziyi-1.7 alahlekelwe abahlinzeki bazo, futhi ingcindezi embonini yamandla iqhubekile nokukhuphuka.
Izindleko zokusebenzisa amandla ukukhiqiza ugesi zinyukile. Njengoba izinkinga zokuhlinzekwa nokufunwa ziye zagqama kakhulu, intengo kagesi e-UK iye yanda izikhathi ezingaphezu kwezingu-7 uma iqhathaniswa nonyaka odlule, ibeka ngokuqondile irekhodi eliphakeme kakhulu kusukela ngo-1999. Bethonywe izici ezifana nokukhuphuka kukagesi nokushoda kokudla, ezinye izitolo ezinkulu e-UK zaphangwa ngokuqondile umphakathi.
Ukushoda kwezabasebenzi okudalwe “i-Brexit” kanye nobhubhane olusha lomqhele kukhulise ukushuba kwesimo emakethe yezimpahla zase-UK.
Ingxenye yamagalaji kaphethiloli e-UK ayinawo uphethiloli ongawugcwalisa kabusha. Uhulumeni waseBrithani unwebe ngokuphuthumayo ama-visa abashayeli bangaphandle abayizi-5,000 ku-2022, kwathi ngo-Okthoba 4, ngesikhathi sasekhaya, wahlanganisa amasosha angaba ngu-200 ukuthi abambe iqhaza ekusebenzeni kokuthutha uphethiloli. Kodwa-ke, ochwepheshe bakholelwa ukuthi inkinga kunzima ukuyixazulula ngokuphelele esikhathini esifushane.
Umhlaba jikelele: Enkingeni yamandla?
Akuwona kuphela amazwe aseYurophu ahlushwa izinkinga zamandla, amanye amazwe athuthukayo ezomnotho, ngisho ne-United States, umthumeli omkhulu wamandla ngaphandle, awavikelekile.
Ngokwe-Bloomberg News, isomiso esibi kunazo zonke eBrazil eminyakeni engu-91 siye saholela ekuweni kokuphehlwa kukagesi ophehlwa ngamanzi. Uma ukungenisa kukagesi okuvela e-Uruguay nase-Argentina kunganyuswa, kungase kuphoqe izwe laseNingizimu Melika ukuthi liqale ukukhawulela ukuhlinzekwa kukagesi.
Ukuze kuncishiswe ukuwohloka kwegridi yamandla, i-Brazil iqala amajeneretha egesi yemvelo ukuze ibuyise ukulahlekelwa okudalwe ukuphehlwa kwamandla kagesi ngamanzi. Lokhu kuphoqa uhulumeni ukuthi aqhudelane namanye amazwe emakethe eqinile yegesi yemvelo emhlabeni wonke, okungase kukhuphule amanani egesi yemvelo ngokungaqondile futhi.
Ngakolunye uhlangothi lomhlaba, iNdiya nayo ikhathazekile ngogesi.
Usomnotho wakwaNomura Financial Consulting and Securities India u-Aurodeep Nandi uthe imboni yamandla kagesi yaseNdiya ibhekene nesivunguvungu esihle: isidingo esikhulu, ukunikezwa okuphansi kwasekhaya, futhi akukho ukugcwaliswa kabusha kwempahla ngokuthenga kwamanye amazwe.
Ngaso leso sikhathi, intengo yamalahle e-Indonesia, okungomunye wabahlinzeki abakhulu bamalahle e-India, yenyuka isuka ku-US$60 ngethani ngoMashi yaya ku-US$200 ngethani ngoSepthemba, okucindezele ukuthengwa kwamalahle kwamaNdiya. Uma ukunikezwa kungagcwaliswa ngesikhathi, i-India kungase kudingeke ukuthi inqamule ukunikezwa kukagesi kumabhizinisi asebenzisa amandla kagesi kanye nezakhiwo zokuhlala.
Njengomkhiqizi omkhulu wegesi yemvelo, i-United States iphinde ibe ngumnikezeli wegesi yemvelo obalulekile eYurophu. Ethonywe iSiphepho i-Ida ekupheleni kuka-Agasti, hhayi kuphela ukunikezwa kwegesi yemvelo eYurophu kuye kwaphazamiseka, kodwa futhi intengo kagesi wokuhlala e-United States iphinde yavuka.
Ukwehliswa kokukhishwa kwekhabhoni kunezimpande ezijulile futhi inyakatho nenkabazwe ingene ebusika obubandayo. Nakuba amandla okukhiqiza amandla ashisayo ehlisiwe, isidingo sikagesi sinyukile ngempela, okuye kwakhulisa igebe likagesi. Amanani kagesi akhuphuke ngokushesha emazweni amaningi emhlabeni jikelele. Izintengo zikagesi e-UK zikhuphuke izikhathi eziyi-10. Njengommeleli ovelele wamandla avuselelekayo, amandla kagesi asebenzisa imvelo anobungani nekhabhoni ephansi kunenzuzo enkulu ngalesi sikhathi. Esimeni sokukhuphuka kwamanani emakethe yamandla yamazwe ngamazwe, Thuthukisa ngamandla amaphrojekthi aphehlwa ngamanzi, futhi asebenzise amandla aphehlwa ngamanzi ukuze avale igebe lemakethe elishiywe ukuncipha kokuphehlwa kukagesi oshisayo.
Isikhathi sokuthumela: Oct-12-2021
