Ihlabathi ngo-2023 lisakhubeka xa lijamelene novavanyo olunzima. Ukwenzeka rhoqo kwemozulu embi, ukusasazeka kwemililo yasendle ezintabeni nasemahlathini, kunye neenyikima ezinkulu kunye nezikhukula… Kungxamisekile ukujongana notshintsho lwemozulu; Ingxabano phakathi kweRashiya neUkraine ayikapheli, ingxabano phakathi kwePalestina ne-Israel iqalile kwakhona, kwaye ingxaki yezopolitiko ibangele ukuguquguquka kwimarike yamandla.
Phakathi kotshintsho, utshintsho lwamandla lwaseTshayina lufumene iziphumo ezimangalisayo, lunegalelo elihle ekubuyiselweni koqoqosho lwehlabathi kunye nophuhliso oluluhlaza lwehlabathi.
Isebe lokuhlela le-China Energy Daily lilungise iindaba ezilishumi eziphambili zamandla zamazwe ngamazwe zowama-2023, lahlalutya imeko, laza labona umkhwa uphela.
Intsebenziswano yase-US ikhokela ngokukhutheleyo oontanga behlabathi kulawulo lwemozulu
Intsebenziswano yase-China ne-US ifaka umfutho omtsha kwisenzo sokutshintsha kwemozulu kwihlabathi liphela. Ngomhla we-15 kweyeNkanga, iintloko zamazwe ase-China nase-United States zadibana ukuze zitshintshiselane ngezimvo ngemiba ephambili enxulumene nobudlelwane phakathi kwamazwe amabini kunye noxolo lwehlabathi kunye nophuhliso; Ngaloo mini inye, la mazwe mabini akhuphe ingxelo yeSunshine Town malunga nokuqinisa intsebenziswano ukujongana nengxaki yemozulu. Uthotho lwamanyathelo asebenzayo ludlulisela umyalezo wentsebenziswano enzulu phakathi kwamacala omabini kwimiba yotshintsho lwemozulu, kwaye lukwafaka ukuzithemba okungakumbi kulawulo lwemozulu kwihlabathi liphela.
Ukususela ngomhla wama-30 kweyeNkanga ukuya kowe-13 kweyoMnga, iNkomfa yama-28 yamaQela kwiNgqungquthela yeSiseko seZizwe eziManyeneyo malunga noTshintsho lweMozulu ibibanjelwe eDubai, e-United Arab Emirates. Amaqela ali-198 atyikitye isivumelwano afikelele kwisivumelwano esibalulekileyo malunga noluhlu lokuqala lwehlabathi lweSivumelwano saseParis, ukuxhaswa ngemali yokulahleka nomonakalo wemozulu, kunye notshintsho olufanelekileyo nolulinganayo. I-China kunye ne-United States ziyandisa intsebenziswano kwaye ziqokelela amandla kwimiba yotshintsho lwemozulu, zithumela imiqondiso emihle kwihlabathi.
Ingxaki yezelizwe iyaqhubeka, umbono weMarike yamandla awucaci
Ingxabano phakathi kweRashiya neUkraine yaqhubeka, ingxabano phakathi kwePalestina ne-Israel yaqala kwakhona, kwaye ingxaki yoLwandle oluBomvu yaqala ukuvela. Ukusukela ekuqaleni kwalo nyaka, imeko yezopolitiko iye yanda, kwaye indlela yokubonelela ngamandla kunye nemfuno yehlabathi iye yakhawulezisa uhlengahlengiso lwayo. Indlela yokuqinisekisa ukhuseleko lwamandla iye yaba ngumbuzo wexesha.
IBhanki yeHlabathi ithi ukusukela ekuqaleni kwalo nyaka, impembelelo yeengxabano zezopolitiko kumaxabiso eemveliso ibincinci, nto leyo enokubonisa amandla aphuculweyo oqoqosho lwehlabathi okwamkela ukuwohloka kwamaxabiso eoli. Nangona kunjalo, xa iingxabano zezopolitiko zisanda, imeko yamaxabiso eemveliso iya kuba mnyama ngokukhawuleza. Izinto ezifana neengxabano zezopolitiko, ukudodobala koqoqosho, ukunyuka kwamaxabiso aphezulu kunye namazinga enzala ziya kuqhubeka zichaphazela ukunikezelwa kweoyile negesi kwihlabathi liphela kunye namaxabiso kude kube ngu-2024.
I-Great Power Diplomacy Igxininisa Ukuphuculwa Kwentsebenziswano Enomtsalane Namandla
Kulo nyaka, idiplomacy yeTshayina njengelizwe elikhulu elineempawu zaseTshayina ikhuthazwe ngokupheleleyo, ibonisa ubuhle bayo, kwaye ikhuthaza intsebenziswano yamandla yamazwe ngamazwe kunye neenzuzo ezihambelanayo kunye neenzuzo ezifanayo kwiinkalo ezininzi kunye namanqanaba anzulu. Ngo-Epreli, iTshayina neFransi zityikitye izivumelwano ezininzi ezintsha zentsebenziswano kwioyile negesi, amandla enyukliya, kunye "ne-hydrogen yelanga yomoya". NgoMeyi, iNgqungquthela yokuqala yase-China Asia yabanjwa, kwaye iTshayina namazwe ase-Central Asia aqhubeka nokwakha ubudlelwane bokuguqula amandla "oyile negesi + amandla amatsha". Ngo-Agasti, iTshayina noMzantsi Afrika baqhubeka nokuqinisa intsebenziswano kwiindawo ezininzi ezibalulekileyo ezifana nezixhobo zamandla kunye nophuhliso oluluhlaza. Ngo-Okthobha, iNgqungquthela yesithathu yeNgqungquthela yeNtsebenziswano yaMazwe ngaMazwe ye-"Belt and Road" yabanjwa ngempumelelo, yakha impumelelo ezingama-458; Kwinyanga enye, iNgqungquthela yesi-5 yeShishini lezaMandla laseTshayina iRussia yabanjwa, isayina malunga nezivumelwano ezingama-20.
Kufanelekile ukukhankanya ukuba lo nyaka uphawula iminyaka eli-10 yenyathelo lokwakha ngokubambisana "iBelt and Road". Njengenyathelo elibalulekileyo lokukhuthaza ukuvulwa kweTshayina kunye neqonga elisebenzayo lokukhuthaza ukwakhiwa koluntu olunekamva elilinganayo loluntu, impumelelo yenyathelo lokwakha ngokubambisana "iBelt and Road" kwiminyaka eli-10 edlulileyo iye yanconywa kakhulu kwaye inefuthe elikhulu. Intsebenziswano yamandla phantsi kwenyathelo "iBelt and Road" ibiqhubeka ikhula kwaye ifumana iziphumo ezibalaseleyo kwiminyaka eli-10 edlulileyo, inceda abantu bamazwe kunye nemimandla ngokwakha kunye, kwaye inceda ekwakheni ikamva lamandla eliluhlaza nelibandakanyayo.
Ukukhupha kwamanzi angcolileyo enyukliya eJapan elwandle kuxhalabile kakhulu luluntu lwamazwe ngamazwe
Ukususela nge-24 ka-Agasti, amanzi angcolileyo avela kwisikhululo samandla enyukliya saseFukushima Daiichi eJapan aza kukhutshwa elwandle, kuqikelelwa ukuba kuza kukhutshwa malunga neetoni ezingama-31200 zamanzi amdaka enyukliya ngo-2023. Isicwangciso saseJapan sokukhupha amanzi angcolileyo enyukliya elwandle besiqhubeka kangangeminyaka engama-30 nangaphezulu, sibeka iingozi ezinkulu kunye neengozi ezifihlakeleyo.
IJapan itshintshe umngcipheko wokungcoliswa yingozi yenyukliya yaseFukushima yaya kumazwe angabamelwane kunye nokusingqongileyo okungqongileyo, nto leyo ebangela umonakalo wesibini kwihlabathi, nto leyo engayi kunceda ekusetyenzisweni kwamandla enyukliya ngoxolo kwaye ayinakulawula ukusasazeka kongcoliseko lwenyukliya. Iingcali zamazwe ngamazwe zibonise ukuba iJapan ayifanele nje kuphela ithathe nzulu iinkxalabo zabantu bayo, kodwa ikwajongane neenkxalabo ezinamandla zoluntu lwamazwe ngamazwe, ingakumbi amazwe angabamelwane. Ngesimo sengqondo esinoxanduva nesakhayo, iJapan kufuneka inxibelelane nabachaphazelekayo kwaye ithathe nzulu izicelo zayo ezifanelekileyo zokuchongwa komonakalo kunye nembuyekezo.
Ukwandiswa ngokukhawuleza kwamandla acocekileyo eTshayina, kusetyenziswa amandla ayo okuqala
Phantsi komxholo wendalo kunye nekhabhoni ephantsi, amandla acocekileyo aqhubekile nokukhula kakhulu kulo nyaka. Ngokwedatha evela kwi-International Energy Agency, amandla avuselelekayo afakwe kwihlabathi liphela kulindeleke ukuba anyuke nge-107 gigawatts ekupheleni kwalo nyaka, kunye namandla afakelweyo angaphezulu kwe-440 gigawatts, nto leyo ephawula ukwanda okukhulu kwimbali.
Kwangaxeshanye, kulindeleke ukuba utyalo-mali lwamandla kwihlabathi liphela lube malunga ne-2.8 trillion yeedola zaseMelika kulo nyaka, apho utyalo-mali lobuchwepheshe bamandla acocekileyo ludlula i-1.7 trillion yeedola zaseMelika, ludlula utyalo-mali kumafutha efosili afana neoyile.
Kubalulekile ukuqaphela ukuba iTshayina, ebisoloko ibekwe kwindawo yokuqala kwihlabathi liphela ngokwezinga lokufakelwa komoya nelanga kangangeminyaka emininzi, idlala indima ephambili nephambili.
Ukuza kuthi ga ngoku, iiturbine zomoya zaseTshayina zithunyelwe kumazwe angama-49 nakwiindawo, apho imveliso yeeturbine zomoya ithatha ngaphezulu kwe-50% yesabelo semarike yehlabathi. Phakathi kwamashishini alishumi aphezulu eeturbine zomoya kwihlabathi liphela, ama-6 avela eTshayina. Ishishini le-photovoltaic laseTshayina libonakala ngakumbi kwiikhonkco eziphambili ezifana nee-silicon wafers, iiseli zebhetri, kunye neemodyuli, ezithatha ngaphezulu kwe-80% yesabelo semarike yehlabathi, nto leyo ebonisa ngokucacileyo ukuqatshelwa kwetekhnoloji yaseTshayina kwimarike.
Eli shishini liqikelela ukuba ngo-2030, inkqubo yamandla ehlabathi iya kudlula kwiinguqu ezibalulekileyo, apho amandla avuselelekayo amalunga ne-50% yesakhiwo sombane wehlabathi. Emi phambili, iTshayina iZhengyuanyuan iqhubeka nokubonelela ngamandla aluhlaza ukuze kuguqulwe amandla ehlabathi.
Utshintsho lwamandla eYurophu naseMelika lujongene nemiqobo, imiqobo yorhwebo iphakamisa inkxalabo
Nangona amandla avuselelekayo afakwe kwihlabathi liphela ekhula ngokukhawuleza, uphuhliso lweshishini lamandla acocekileyo kumazwe aseYurophu naseMelika luhlala luthintelwa, kwaye imiba yokuhanjiswa kweenkonzo iyaqhubeka nokuvuselela iimvakalelo zamazwe aseYurophu naseMelika.
Iindleko eziphezulu kunye nokuphazamiseka kwezixhobo kukhokelele kwilahleko kubavelisi beeturbine zomoya baseYurophu naseMelika, nto leyo ebangele ukwanda kancinci komthamo kunye nothotho lwabaphuhlisi abarhoxayo kwiiprojekthi zamandla omoya aphesheya eMelika nase-United Kingdom.
Kwicandelo lamandla elanga, kwiinyanga ezisibhozo zokuqala zalo nyaka, abavelisi abali-15 abaphambili baseYurophu bavelise i-gigawatt e-1 yeemodyuli zelanga, i-11% kuphela yexesha elifanayo kunyaka ophelileyo.
Kwangaxeshanye, amagosa e-EU athethe esidlangalaleni ukuba aqalise uphando oluchasene nenkxaso-mali nxamnye neemveliso zamandla omoya zaseTshayina. UMthetho woKuncitshiswa kweNgqesho ophunyezwe yi-United States uthintela ngakumbi iimveliso zangaphandle ze-photovoltaic ukuba zingangeni kwimarike yase-US, nto leyo enciphisa isantya sotyalo-mali, ulwakhiwo, kunye nesantya soqhagamshelo lwegridi kwiiprojekthi zamandla elanga e-United States.
Ukujongana notshintsho lwemozulu kunye nokufezekisa utshintsho lwamandla akunakuhlukaniswa nentsebenziswano yehlabathi. Amazwe aseYurophu naseMelika ahlala ebeka imiqobo yorhwebo, eneneni "eyingozi kwabanye kunokuba ibe yeyokuzicingela." Kuphela ngokugcina ukuvulwa kwemarike yehlabathi apho sinokukhuthaza ngokubambisana ukunciphisa iindleko zomoya kunye nelanga kwaye sifezekise imeko ephumelela kuwo onke amaqela.
Imfuno yezimbiwa eziphambili iyanda, ukhuseleko lobonelelo luxhalabile kakhulu
Uphuhliso oluphezulu lwezixhobo zezimbiwa eziphambili lushushu ngendlela engazange ibonwe ngaphambili. Ukukhula okukhulu ekusebenziseni itekhnoloji yamandla acocekileyo kubangele ukwanda kwemfuno yezimbiwa ezibalulekileyo ezimelwe yi-lithium, i-nickel, i-cobalt, kunye ne-copper. Umlinganiselo wotyalo-mali oluphezulu lwezimbiwa eziphambili ukhule ngokukhawuleza, kwaye amazwe akhawulezise kakhulu isantya sophuhliso lwezixhobo zezimbiwa zasekuhlaleni.
Xa sithatha izinto ezisetyenzisiweyo zebhetri ye-lithium njengomzekelo, ukususela ngo-2017 ukuya ku-2022, imfuno ye-lithium yehlabathi inyuke ngokuphindwe kathathu, imfuno ye-cobalt inyuke ngama-70%, kwaye imfuno ye-nickel inyuke ngama-40%. Imfuno enkulu esezantsi komlambo ivuselele umdla wokuhlola phezulu, okwenza amachibi etyuwa, imigodi, ulwandle, kwaneentaba-mlilo zibe yimithombo yobutyebi.
Kubalulekile ukuqaphela ukuba amazwe amaninzi aphambili avelisa izimbiwa kwihlabathi liphela akhethe ukuqinisa imigaqo-nkqubo yawo yophuhliso oluphezulu. IChile ikhupha "iSicwangciso seLithium seSizwe" kwaye iza kuseka inkampani yezimbiwa ephethwe ngurhulumente; isindululo saseMexico sokwenza izixhobo zokumbiwa kwe-lithium zibe zesizwe; iIndonesia iqinisa ulawulo lwayo oluphethwe ngurhulumente kwizixhobo ze-nickel ore. IChile, iArgentina, kunye neBolivia, ezithatha ngaphezulu kwesiqingatha sezixhobo ze-lithium zehlabathi, ziyanda ukubandakanyeka kwiintengiso, kwaye "i-OPEC Lithium Mine" sele iza kuvela.
Izixhobo zezimbiwa eziphambili zibe “yioyile entsha” kwimarike yamandla, kwaye ukhuseleko lobonelelo lwezimbiwa lukwayeyona nto iphambili kuphuhliso oluzinzileyo lwamandla acocekileyo. Ukuqinisa ukhuseleko lobonelelo lwezimbiwa eziphambili kubalulekile.
Ezinye ziyashiywa, ezinye ziyakhuthazwa, kwaye impikiswano malunga nokusetyenziswa kwenyukliya iyaqhubeka
Ngo-Epreli walo nyaka, iJamani yabhengeza ukuvalwa kwezikhululo zayo ezintathu zokugqibela zamandla enyukliya, yangena ngokusesikweni “kwixesha elingenayo inyukliya” kwaye yaba sisiganeko esibalulekileyo kwishishini lenyukliya lehlabathi. Isizathu esiphambili sokuyekiswa kweJamani ngamandla enyukliya kukuxhalaba malunga nokhuseleko lwenyukliya, nto leyo eyingxaki enkulu ejongene neshishini lenyukliya lehlabathi ngoku. Ekuqaleni kwalo nyaka, isikhululo samandla enyukliya saseMonticello, esasisebenza eMelika kangangeminyaka engaphezu kwesiqingatha, naso savalwa ngenxa yemiba yokhuseleko.
Iindleko eziphezulu zeeprojekthi zokwakha ezintsha nazo “zingumqobo” kwindlela yophuhliso lwamandla enyukliya. Ukugqithisa kakhulu kweendleko zeeprojekthi zeYunithi 3 kunye neYunithi 4 yeSitishi saMandla eNyukliya saseVogtöhler eMelika yimeko eqhelekileyo.
Nangona kukho imingeni emininzi, iimpawu zokuvelisa amandla enyukliya ezicocekileyo neziphantsi kwekhabhoni zisayenza isebenze kwinqanaba lamandla ehlabathi. Kulo nyaka, iJapan, eye yahlangabezana neengozi ezinkulu zamandla enyukliya, ibhengeze ukuqaliswa kwakhona kwezityalo zamandla enyukliya ukuze kuzinziswe ukunikezelwa kwamandla; iFransi, exhomekeke kakhulu kumandla enyukliya, ibhengeze ukuba iza kubonelela ngenkxaso-mali engaphezulu kwe-100 lezigidi zeerandi kushishino lwayo lwamandla enyukliya lwasekhaya kwiminyaka eli-10 ezayo; iFinland, iIndiya, kwane-United States zonke zithe ziza kuyiphuhlisa ngamandla imboni yamandla enyukliya.
Amandla enyukliya acocekileyo nangenakhabhoni esezantsi ebesoloko ethathwa njengesixhobo esibalulekileyo sokujongana notshintsho lwemozulu, kwaye indlela yokuphuhlisa amandla enyukliya ngomgangatho ophezulu ibe yingxaki ebalulekileyo kutshintsho lwamandla lwehlabathi lwangoku.
Ixesha leefosili zokudibana okuphindaphindiweyo kunye nokuthengwa kweoyile negesi alikapheli.
I-ExxonMobil, inkampani enkulu yeoyile eMelika, iChevron, inkampani yesibini ngobukhulu yeoyile, kunye neWestern Oil Company zonke zenze ukudibana okukhulu kunye nokuthengwa kulo nyaka, nto leyo eyenze ukuba inani lilonke lokudibana okukhulu kunye nokuthengwa kushishino lweoyile negesi eMntla Melika liye kwi-$124.5 yeebhiliyoni. Eli shishini lilindele igagasi elitsha lokudibana kunye nokuthengwa kushishino lweoyile negesi.
Ngo-Okthobha, i-ExxonMobil yabhengeza ukuthengwa okupheleleyo kweVanguard Natural Resources, umvelisi we-shale ozimeleyo, malunga ne-$60 yeebhiliyoni, nto leyo eyaphawula ukuthengwa kwayo okukhulu ukusukela ngo-1999. I-Chevron yabhengeza kwinyanga enye ukuba iza kutyala imali eyi-$53 yeebhiliyoni ukuze ifumane umvelisi weoyile negesi waseMelika uHess, oyeyona mveliso yayo inkulu kwimbali. NgoDisemba, iinkampani zeoyile zaseNtshona zabhengeza ukuthengwa kwenkampani yeoyile negesi ye-shale yaseMelika nge-$12 yeebhiliyoni.
Abavelisi abakhulu beoyile negesi bahlala besandisa imeko-bume yabo yeshishini, nto leyo ebangela ukudibana okutsha. Iinkampani ezininzi zamandla ziya kuqinisa ukhuphiswano lwazo ngezona zinto zibalaseleyo zeoyile negesi ukuqinisekisa ukunikezelwa okuzinzileyo kwiminyaka embalwa ezayo. Nangona bekukho ingxoxo eqhubekayo malunga nokuba imfuno yeoyile ephezulu ifikile na, kunokuqinisekiswa ukuba ixesha leefosili alikafiki esiphelweni.
Inguqu yembali yemfuno yamalahle efikelela kwinqanaba eliphezulu isenokufika
Ngowama-2023, imfuno yamalahle ehlabathini lonke ifikelele kwinqanaba eliphezulu kwimbali, apho umthamo uwonke udlula iitoni eziziibhiliyoni ezisi-8.5.
Lilonke, ugxininiso olubekwe kumandla acocekileyo ngamazwe akwinqanaba lomgaqo-nkqubo luye lwanciphisa izinga lokukhula kwemfuno yamalahle ehlabathini, kodwa amalahle ahlala “lilitye eliqinileyo” kwiinkqubo zamandla zamazwe amaninzi.
Ngokwembono yeemeko zemarike, imakethi yamalahle ngokusisiseko iphumile kwixesha lokuguquguquka okukhulu kobonelelo olubangelwa yimeko yobhubhane, ingxabano phakathi kweRussia neUkraine nezinye izinto, kwaye umgangatho ophakathi wamaxabiso amalahle ehlabathi uye wehla. Ngokwembono yobonelelo, amalahle aseRashiya anokuthi angene kwimakethi ngexabiso eliphantsi ngenxa yezohlwayo ezibekwe ngamazwe aseYurophu naseMelika; Umthamo wokuthunyelwa kwamanye amazwe kwamazwe avelisa amalahle afana ne-Indonesia, iMozambique, kunye noMzantsi Afrika unyukile, kunye nomthamo wokuthunyelwa kwamanye amazwe kwamalahle e-Indonesia usondela kwi-500 yezigidi zeetoni, nto leyo ebeka irekhodi entsha yembali.
Ngokwembono ye-International Energy Agency, imfuno yamalahle ehlabathini lonke isenokuba ifikelele kwinqanaba lotshintsho lwembali ngenxa yempembelelo yeenkqubo zokunciphisa ikhabhoni kunye nemigaqo-nkqubo kumazwe ahlukeneyo. Njengoko amandla afakiweyo amandla avuselelekayo edlula izinga lokukhula kwemfuno yombane, imfuno yombane wamalahle inokubonisa ukuhla, kwaye ukusetyenziswa kwamalahle njenge-fossil fuel kulindeleke ukuba kube nokuhla "kwesakhiwo".
Ixesha leposi: Jan-02-2024
