Umhlaba ngo-2023 usakhubeka phambi kovavanyo oluqatha. Ukubakho rhoqo kwemozulu embi, ukusasazeka kwemililo yasendle ezintabeni nasemahlathini, iinyikima nezikhukula ezixhaphakileyo… Kuyangxamisekile ukulungisa utshintsho lwemozulu; Ingxabano yaseRussia-Ukraine ayikapheli, ingxabano yasePalestina yakwaSirayeli iqale kwakhona, kwaye ingxaki ye-geopolitical ibangele ukuguquguquka kwimarike yamandla.
Phakathi kweenguqu, inguqu yamandla e-China izuze iziphumo ezimangalisayo, yenza igalelo elihle ekuvuseleleni uqoqosho lwehlabathi kunye nophuhliso lohlaza lwehlabathi.
Isebe labahleli be-China Energy Daily lalungisa ezona ndaba ziphezulu zamandla zamazwe ngamazwe ezilishumi ngo-2023, layihlalutya le meko, laze lajonga imeko iyonke.
Intsebenziswano yase-China yase-US ngokusebenzayo ikhokela oontanga behlabathi kulawulo lwemozulu
Intsebenziswano yase-China yase-US ifaka umfutho omtsha kwintshukumo yemozulu yehlabathi. Ngomhla we-15 kuNovemba, iintloko zelizwe laseTshayina kunye ne-United States zadibana ukuze zitshintshe ngokuphandle iimbono malunga nemiba emikhulu enxulumene nobudlelwane bamazwe amabini kunye noxolo lwehlabathi kunye nophuhliso; Kwangolo suku lunye, la mazwe mabini akhuphe ingxelo yeSunlight Town malunga nokomeleza intsebenziswano ukujongana nengxaki yemozulu. Uthotho lwamanyathelo asebenzayo adlulisa umyalezo wentsebenziswano enzulu phakathi kwala macala mabini kwimiba yokutshintsha kwemozulu, kwaye ikwafaka ukuzithemba ngakumbi kulawulo lwemozulu yehlabathi.
Ukususela ngoNovemba 30 ukuya kwi-13 kaDisemba, iNkomfa ye-28 yamaQela kwiNgqungquthela yeNkqubo-sikhokelo yeZizwe eziManyeneyo malunga noTshintsho lweMozulu yayibanjelwe eDubai, eUnited Arab Emirates. Amaqela ekhontrakthi ali-198 afikelele kwisivumelwano esibalulekileyo kuluhlu lokuqala lwehlabathi lweSivumelwano saseParis, ilahleko yemozulu kunye nenkxaso-mali yomonakalo, kunye notshintsho olunobulungisa nolunobulungisa. I-China ne-United States zandisa intsebenziswano kwaye ziqokelela amandla kwimiba yokutshintsha kwemozulu, zithumela imiqondiso eyakhayo kwihlabathi.
I-Geopolitical Crisis iyaqhubeka, i-Energy Market Outlook ayicacanga
Ungquzulwano lwaseRashiya neUkraine lwaqhubeka, ungquzulwano lwasePalestina lwasePalestina lwaphinda lwaqalisa, kwaye kwabakho ingxaki yoLwandle oluBomvu. Ukusukela ekuqaleni kwalo nyaka, imeko ye-geopolitical iye yaqina, kwaye unikezelo lwamandla ombane kunye nepateni yemfuno ikhawulezise ukuhlengahlengiswa kwayo. Indlela yokuqinisekisa ukhuseleko lwamandla kuye kwaba ngumbuzo wamaxesha.
I-World Bank yalatha ukuba ukusukela ekuqaleni kwalo nyaka, iimpembelelo zongquzulwano ngokwelizwe kumaxabiso eemveliso zilinganiselwe, nto leyo enokuthi ibonise ukuphucuka kwesakhono soqoqosho lwehlabathi ukufunxa ukothuka kwamaxabiso e-oyile. Nangona kunjalo, nje ukuba ungquzulwano lwemo yelizwe luye lwanda, imbonakalo yamaxabiso eemveliso iya kuba mnyama ngokukhawuleza. Izinto ezinje ngeengxabano zomhlaba, ukudodobala koqoqosho, ukunyuka kwamaxabiso aphezulu kunye namazinga enzala aya kuqhubeka nokuba nefuthe kubonelelo lwe-oyile kunye negesi yehlabathi kunye namaxabiso kude kube ngu-2024.
I-Great Power Diplomacy ibalaselisa uMtsalane kunye noPhuculo lweNtsebenziswano yaMandla
Kulo nyaka, i-diplomacy yase-China njengelizwe elikhulu elineempawu zaseTshayina iye yakhuthazwa ngokubanzi, ibonisa umtsalane wayo, kunye nokukhuthaza intsebenziswano yamandla ezizwe ngezizwe ngeenzuzo ezihambelanayo kunye neenzuzo ezifanayo kwimilinganiselo emininzi kunye namanqanaba anzulu. Ngo-Epreli, i-China kunye ne-France batyikitye izivumelwano zentsebenziswano ezininzi kwi-oyile negesi, amandla enyukliya, kunye "ne-hydrogen solar hydrogen". NgoMeyi, iNgqungquthela yokuqala yase-China yase-Asia yabanjwa, kwaye i-China kunye namazwe ase-Asia aseMbindi aqhubeka nokwakha "i-oyile kunye negesi + amandla amatsha" ubudlelwane bokuguqulwa kwamandla. Ngo-Agasti, i-China kunye noMzantsi Afrika ziqhubekile ziqinisa intsebenziswano kwiinkalo ezininzi ezibalulekileyo ezifana nemithombo yamandla kunye nophuhliso lohlaza. Ngo-Okthobha, iForam yesithathu yeNtsebenziswano yeZizwe ngezizwe “yeBelt and Road” yabanjwa ngempumelelo, yenza impumelelo engama-458; Kwangaloo nyanga, i-5th China Russia Energy Business Forum yabanjwa, ityikitya malunga nezivumelwano ezingama-20.
Kufanelekile ukukhankanya ukuba lo nyaka uphawula isikhumbuzo se-10 senyathelo lokwakha ngokubambisana "iBhanti kunye neNdlela". Njengenyathelo elibalulekileyo lokukhuthaza ukuvulwa kweTshayina kunye neqonga elisebenzayo lokukhuthaza ulwakhiwo loluntu olunekamva ekwabelwana ngalo loluntu, impumelelo yeli phulo lokwakha ngokubambisana “iBhanti neNdlela” kule minyaka ili-10 idlulileyo iye yanconywa ngokubanzi kwaye ineempembelelo ezifikelela kude. Intsebenziswano yamandla phantsi kwenyathelo elithi "Ibhanti kunye neNdlela" iye yanda kwaye ifezekisa iziphumo ezineziqhamo kule minyaka i-10 idlulileyo, inceda abantu bamazwe kunye nemimandla ngokudibeneyo yokwakha, kunye nokunceda ukwakha ikamva lamandla aluhlaza kunye nokubandakanya amandla.
Ukukhutshwa kwamanzi angcolisekileyo aseJapan elwandle kuxhalabile kakhulu luluntu lwamazwe ngamazwe
Ukuqala ngo-Agasti 24th, amanzi angcolileyo avela kwisikhululo samandla enyukliya e-Fukushima Daiichi e-Japan aya kukhutshelwa elwandle, kunye nokukhutshwa okuqikelelwayo malunga neetoni ze-31200 zamanzi angcolileyo enyukliya ngo-2023. Isicwangciso saseJapan sokukhupha amanzi angcolileyo enyukliya elwandle sele siqhubeka iminyaka eyi-30 okanye nangaphezulu, ibeka ingozi enkulu.
IJapan itshintshe umngcipheko wongcoliseko olusuka kwingozi yenyukliya yaseFukushima yaya kumazwe angabamelwane kunye nokusingqongileyo, ibangela ukwenzakala okwesibini emhlabeni, okungakuncediyo ukusetyenziswa kwamandla enyukliya ngoxolo kwaye ayikwazi ukulawula ukusasazeka kongcoliseko lwenyukliya. Iingqondi zamazwe ngamazwe ziye zabonisa ukuba iJapan ayifanele ithathele ingqalelo kuphela iinkxalabo zabantu bayo, kodwa iphinde ijongane neenkxalabo ezinzulu zoluntu lwamazwe ngamazwe, ngakumbi amazwe angabamelwane. Ngesimo sengqondo esinenkathalo nesakhayo, iJapan kufuneka inxibelelane nabachaphazelekayo kwaye ithathele ingqalelo iimfuno zabo ezisemthethweni zokuchongwa komonakalo kunye nembuyekezo.
Ukwandiswa okukhawulezayo kwamandla acocekileyo e-China, ukusebenzisa amandla ayo obuvulindlela
Ngaphantsi komxholo wekhabhoni eluhlaza kunye ne-low-carbon, amandla acocekileyo aqhubekile nokuphuhlisa kakhulu kulo nyaka. Ngokutsho kwedatha evela kwi-Arhente yaMandla yaMazwe ngaMazwe, amandla afakwe kwihlabathi jikelele amandla avuselelekayo kulindeleke ukuba anyuke nge-107 gigawatts ekupheleni kwalo nyaka, kunye nomthamo ofakiweyo ongaphezulu kwe-440 gigawatts, ephawula ukwanda okukhulu kwimbali.
Ngaxeshanye, utyalo-mali lwamandla ehlabathi kulindeleke ukuba lube malunga ne-2.8 yetriliyoni zeedola zaseMelika kulo nyaka, notyalo-mali lobuchwepheshe bamandla acocekileyo olungaphaya kwe-1.7 yetriliyoni yeedola zaseMelika, ukodlula utyalo-mali kumafutha efosili afana ne-oyile.
Kuyafaneleka ukuba uqaphele ukuba i-China, ehlala ibeka indawo yokuqala kwihlabathi malunga nomoya kunye nomthamo ofakwe ilanga iminyaka emininzi, idlala indima yobuvulindlela kunye neyokukhokela.
Ukuza kuthi ga ngoku, iiinjini zomoya zaseTshayina zithunyelwe kumazwe angama-49 kunye nemimandla, kunye nemveliso yeinjini yomoya engaphezulu kwe-50% yesabelo semarike yehlabathi. Phakathi kwamashishini alishumi aphezulu einjini yomoya yehlabathi, ama-6 aphuma eTshayina. Umzi-mveliso waseTshayina we-photovoltaic ubalasele ngakumbi kunxibelelwano oluphambili olunje ngee-silicon wafers, iiseli zebhetri, kunye neemodyuli, ezithatha ngaphezulu kwe-80% yesabelo semarike yehlabathi, ebonisa ngokufanelekileyo ukuqondwa kwethekhinoloji yaseTshayina.
Ishishini liqikelela ukuba ngo-2030, inkqubo yamandla ehlabathi iya kuba neenguqu ezibalulekileyo, amandla ahlaziyekayo athatha malunga ne-50% yesakhiwo sombane wehlabathi. Ukuma ngaphambili, i-China Zhengyuanyuan ngokuqhubekayo ihambisa amandla aluhlaza kuguquko lwamandla ehlabathi.
IYurophu kunye neMelika inguqu yamandla ijongene nemiqobo, imiqobo yorhwebo iphakamisa inkxalabo
Nangona amandla afakiweyo ehlabathi jikelele anamandla ahlaziyekayo akhula ngokukhawuleza, uphuhliso loshishino lwamandla acocekileyo kumazwe aseYurophu naseMelika luhlala luthintelwa, kwaye imiba yekhonkco lokubonelela iyaqhubeka nokuxhokonxa imithambo-luvo yamazwe aseYurophu naseMelika.
Iindleko eziphezulu kunye nokuphazamiseka kwekhonkco lonikezelo lwezixhobo kukhokelele kwilahleko kubavelisi beinjini yomoya yaseYurophu naseMelika, okukhokelele ekwandiseni okucothayo komthamo kunye nothotho lwabaphuhlisi barhoxa kwiiprojekthi zamandla omoya olwandle e-United States nase-United Kingdom.
Kwintsimi yamandla elanga, kwiinyanga ezisibhozo zokuqala kulo nyaka, abavelisi abakhulu be-15 baseYurophu bavelise i-gigawatt ye-1 yeemodyuli zelanga, kuphela i-11% yexesha elifanayo kunyaka odlulileyo.
Ngaxeshanye, amagosa e-EU athethe esidlangalaleni ukuba asungule uphando lwenkxaso-mali ngokuchasene neemveliso zamandla omoya zaseTshayina. Umthetho wokuNcitshiswa kwexabiso lokunyuka kwamaxabiso owenziwe yi-United States uthintela ngakumbi iimveliso ze-photovoltaic zangaphandle ukuba zingene kwimarike yase-US, ukucotha utyalo-mali, ukwakhiwa, kunye nesantya soqhagamshelwano lwegridi yeeprojekthi zombane welanga e-United States.
Ukujongana nokutshintsha kwemozulu kunye nokufezekisa ukuguqulwa kwamandla akunakuhlukaniswa nentsebenziswano yehlabathi. Amazwe aseYurophu nawaseMerika ngokuzingisileyo emisela imiqobo yorhwebo, eneneni “eyingozi kwabanye kunokuzingca.” Kuphela ngokugcina ukuvulwa kwemarike yehlabathi sinokuthi ngokudibeneyo sikhuthaze ukucuthwa kweendleko zomoya kunye nelanga kwaye sifezekise imeko yokuphumelela kuwo onke amaqela.
Ukunyuka kwemfuno yezimbiwa eziphambili, ukhuseleko lokubonelela luxhalabele kakhulu
Uphuhliso oluphezulu lwemithombo yezimbiwa eziphambili lushushu ngendlela engazange ibonwe ngaphambili. Ukukhula okugqabhukileyo ekusetyenzisweni kobuchwephesha bamandla acocekileyo kuye kwaqhuba ukunyuka kwemfuno yeeminerali eziphambili ezimelwe yi-lithium, nickel, cobalt, kunye nobhedu. Izinga lotyalo-mali olunyukayo lwezimbiwa eziphambili likhule ngokukhawuleza, kwaye amazwe asinyuse kakhulu isantya sophuhliso lwemithombo yezimbiwa yasekhaya.
Ukuthatha i-lithium ibhetri ye-raw materials njengomzekelo, ukusuka kwi-2017 ukuya kwi-2022, imfuno ye-lithium yehlabathi yanda malunga namaxesha amathathu, imfuno ye-cobalt yanda nge-70%, kwaye imfuno ye-nickel yanda ngama-40%. Imfuno enkulu esemazantsi omlambo iye yabangela umdla wokuhlola phezu komlambo, okwenza amachibi anetyuwa, imigodi, ulwandle, kunye nemingxuma yentaba-mlilo ibe nguvimba wobutyebi.
Kubalulekile ukuqaphela ukuba amazwe amaninzi aphambili avelisa izimbiwa kwihlabathi jikelele akhethe ukuqinisa imigaqo-nkqubo yawo yophuhliso. I-Chile ikhupha “iQhinga layo leLithium yeSizwe” kwaye iza kuseka inkampani yezimbiwa karhulumente; Isindululo saseMexico sokwenza izixhobo zezemigodi ze-lithium zibe kuzwelonke; I-Indonesia yomeleza ulawulo lwayo oluphantsi kolawulo lwe-nickel ore. I-Chile, i-Argentina, kunye neBolivia, i-akhawunti engaphezu kwesiqingatha se-lithium ye-lithium yemithombo yehlabathi, iyanda ekutshintshiseni, kwaye "i-OPEC Lithium Mine" sele iza kuvela.
Imithombo yezimbiwa eziphambili ziye zaba "yi-oyile entsha" kwimarike yamandla, kwaye ukhuseleko lokunikezelwa kwezimbiwa lube ngundoqo kuphuhliso oluzinzileyo lwamandla acocekileyo. Ukomeleza ukhuseleko lwezimbiwa eziphambili kubalulekile.
Ezinye zilahliwe, ezinye ziyakhuthazwa, yaye impikiswano ngokusetyenziswa kwenyukliya iyaqhubeka
Ngo-Epreli walo nyaka, iJamani yabhengeza ukuvalwa kwemizi-mveliso yayo emithathu yokugqibela yamandla enyukliya, ingena ngokusesikweni “kwixesha lasimahla lenyukliya” kwaye yaba sisiganeko esibalulekileyo kushishino lwamandla enyukliya lwehlabathi. Esona sizathu siphambili sokuyeka iJamani amandla enyukliya kukuxhalaba malunga nokhuseleko lwenyukliya, nto leyo ekwangowona mngeni uphambili ojongene neshishini lamandla enyukliya lehlabathi ngoku. Ekuqaleni kwalo nyaka, iziko lamandla enyukliya laseMonticello, elalisebenza e-United States ngaphezu kwesiqingatha senkulungwane, nalo lavalwa ngenxa yemicimbi yokhuseleko.
Iindleko eziphezulu zeeprojekthi zokwakha ezintsha “zikwangumqobo” kwindlela yophuhliso lwamandla enyukliya. Iindleko ezigqithisileyo zeeprojekthi zeYunithi 3 kunye neYunithi yesi-4 yeVogt ö hler Nuclear Power Plant eUnited States yimeko eqhelekileyo.
Nangona kukho imingeni emininzi, iimpawu ezicocekileyo kunye nekhabhoni ephantsi yokuveliswa kwamandla enyukliya zisawenza asebenze kwinqanaba lehlabathi lamandla. Ngaphakathi kwalo nyaka, iJapan, ethe yafumana iingozi ezimandundu zombane wenyukliya, yabhengeza ukuqaliswa kwakhona kwezizinda zamandla enyukliya ukuze kuzinziswe unikezelo lombane; IFransi, ethembele kakhulu kumandla enyukliya, yabhengeza ukuba iza kubonelela ngemali engaphaya kwe-100 lezigidi zeeyuro kwishishini layo lasekhaya lamandla enyukliya kwiminyaka eli-10 ezayo; IFinland, iIndiya, kwaneUnited States zonke ziye zachaza ukuba ziya kuphuhlisa ngamandla ishishini lamandla enyukliya.
Amandla enyukliya acocekileyo nanekhabhoni ephantsi asoloko ethathwa njengesixhobo esibalulekileyo sokujongana nokutshintsha kwemozulu, kwaye indlela yokuphuhlisa amandla enyukliya ngomgangatho ophezulu ibe ngumba obalulekileyo kwinguqu yamandla yehlabathi ekhoyo ngoku.
Ixesha lefosili lokuphinda kudityaniswa okukhulu kunye nokufumana i-oyile negesi alikapheli
I-ExxonMobil, inkampani yeoli inkulu e-United States, i-Chevron, inkampani ye-oyile yesibini ngobukhulu, kunye neNkampani ye-oyile yaseNtshona, zonke ziqhube ukudityaniswa okukhulu kunye nokuthengwa kulo nyaka, zizisa inani elipheleleyo lokudityaniswa okukhulu kunye nokuthengwa kuMntla waseMelika kwishishini le-oyile kunye negesi kwi-124.5 yeebhiliyoni zeedola. Ishishini lilindele igagasi elitsha lokudityaniswa kunye nokufumana kwishishini leoli kunye negesi.
Ngo-Okthobha, i-ExxonMobil ibhengeze ukufunyanwa komvelisi we-shale i-Vanguard Natural Resources phantse i-60 yeebhiliyoni zeedola, iphawula ukufunyanwa kwayo okukhulu ukususela ngo-1999. I-Chevron ibhengeze kwinyanga enye ukuba iya kutyala i-53 yeebhiliyoni zeedola ukuze ifumane umvelisi we-oyile waseMelika kunye negesi uHess, ekwayeyona nto ifunyenwe kakhulu kwimbali. NgoDisemba, iinkampani zeoyile zaseNtshona zabhengeza ukufumana i-oyile ye-shale yase-US kunye nenkampani yegesi ye-12 yeebhiliyoni zeedola.
Abavelisi abakhulu be-oyile kunye negesi bahlala besandisa indawo yeshishini labo elingasentla, nto leyo ebangela umanyano olutsha. Iinkampani zamandla ezingakumbi ziya kuqinisa ukhuphiswano lwazo lweyona mpahla igqwesileyo yeoyile nerhasi ukuze kuqinisekiswe unikezelo oluzinzileyo kumashumi ambalwa eminyaka azayo. Nangona kukho ingxoxo eqhubekayo malunga nokuba imfuno ye-oyile ephezulu ifikile, inokuqiniseka ukuba ixesha le-fossil alikafiki esiphelweni.
Imbali yenguqu yemfuno yamalahle ifikelela kwinqanaba eliphezulu elitsha inokuza
Ngo-2023, imfuno yamalahle yehlabathi ifikelele kwimbali entsha ephezulu, kunye nomthamo opheleleyo ongaphezulu kwe-8.5 yeebhiliyoni zeetoni.
Ngokubanzi, ugxininiso olubekwe kumandla acocekileyo ngamazwe kwinqanaba lomgaqo-nkqubo liye lacotha izinga lokukhula kwemfuno yamalahle yehlabathi, kodwa amalahle ahlala "ilitye le-ballast" leenkqubo zamandla zamazwe amaninzi.
Ngokwembono yeemeko zemarike, imarike yamalahle ngokusisiseko iphumile kwixesha lokuguquguquka okubukhali konikezelo olubangelwa yimeko yendyikityha, ingxabano yaseRussia-Ukraine kunye nezinye izinto, kwaye umgangatho ophakathi wamaxabiso amalahle ehlabathi wehlile. Ukususela kumbono wecala lokubonelela, amalahle aseRashiya angakwazi ukungena kwimarike ngexabiso elithotyiweyo ngenxa yezohlwayo ezibekwe ngamazwe aseYurophu naseMelika; Umthamo wamazwe avelisa amalahle kumazwe angaphandle afana ne-Indonesia, iMozambique, noMzantsi Afrika unyukile, umthamo wokuthunyelwa kwamalahle e-Indonesia usondele kwiitoni ezizigidi ezingama-500, nto leyo ebeka imbali entsha.
Ngokombono we-International Energy Agency, imfuno yamalahle yehlabathi inokuthi ifikelele kwimbali yokuguquka ngenxa yempembelelo yeenkqubo zokunciphisa ikhabhoni kunye nemigaqo-nkqubo kumazwe ahlukeneyo. Njengoko umthamo ofakelweyo wamandla ahlaziyekayo udlula isantya sokukhula kwemfuno yombane, imfuno yombane wamalahle ingabonakalisa ukuhla, kwaye ukusetyenziswa kwamalahle njengamafutha efosili kulindeleke ukuba kwehle “kwisakhiwo”.
Ixesha lokuposa: Jan-02-2024
