Umhlaba ngo-2023 usakhubeka lapho ubhekene nezivivinyo ezinzima. Ukwenzeka njalo kwesimo sezulu esibi kakhulu, ukubhebhetheka kwemililo yequbula ezintabeni nasemahlathini, nokuzamazama komhlaba okudlangile nezikhukhula… Kuyaphuthuma ukubhekana nokuguquguquka kwesimo sezulu; Ingxabano yaseRussia ne-Ukraine ayikapheli, ingxabano yase-Palestine Israel isiphinde yaqala futhi, futhi inkinga ye-geopolitical ibangele ukushintshashintsha kwemakethe yamandla.
Phakathi nezinguquko, uguquko lwamandla e-China lube nemiphumela emangalisayo, lube negalelo elihle ekuvuseleleni umnotho womhlaba kanye nokuthuthukiswa kokuluhlaza emhlabeni jikelele.
Umnyango wokuhlela we-China Energy Daily uhlele izindaba eziyishumi eziphezulu zamandla zamazwe ngamazwe zango-2023, wahlaziya isimo, futhi waqaphela ukuthambekela okuphelele.
Ukubambisana kwe-China ne-US kuhola ontanga yomhlaba wonke ekubuseni kwesimo sezulu
Ukubambisana kwe-China ne-US kufaka umfutho omusha esenzweni sezulu somhlaba. Ngomhla ziyi-15 kuLwezi, izinhloko zezwe laseShayina kanye nelase-United States zahlangana ukuze zicobelelane ngemibono ngezindaba ezinkulu eziphathelene nobudlelwano bamazwe amabili kanye nokuthula nentuthuko emhlabeni; Ngalo lolo suku, la mazwe womabili akhiphe isitatimende seSunshine Town mayelana nokuqinisa ukubambisana ukuze kubhekwane nenkinga yesimo sezulu. Uchungechunge lwezinyathelo ezisebenzayo ludlulisa umyalezo wokubambisana okujulile phakathi kwezinhlangothi zombili ezindabeni zokuguquguquka kwesimo sezulu, futhi lufaka nokuzethemba okwengeziwe ekubuseni kwesimo sezulu emhlabeni jikelele.
Kusukela mhla zingama-30 kuLwezi kuya zingama-13 kuZibandlela, iNgqungquthela yama-28 Yamazwe Ahlangene Emhlanganweni Wohlaka Lwezizwe Ezihlangene Lokuguquguquka Kwesimo Sezulu yabanjwa e-Dubai, e-United Arab Emirates. Izinkampani eziyizinkontileka eziyi-198 zifinyelele esivumelwaneni esiyingqopha-mlando ngohlu lokuqala lomhlaba lweSivumelwano saseParis, ukulahlekelwa kwesimo sezulu kanye noxhaso lomonakalo, kanye noguquko olunobulungiswa nolulinganayo. I-China ne-United States bandisa ukubambisana futhi baqoqa amandla ezindabeni zokuguquguquka kwesimo sezulu, ukuthumela izimpawu ezinhle emhlabeni.
I-Geopolitical Crisis iyaqhubeka, i-Energy Market Outlook ayicacile
Ukungqubuzana kweRussia ne-Ukraine kwaqhubeka, ingxabano yasePalestina yase-Israel yaqala kabusha, futhi inkinga yoLwandle Olubomvu yaqala. Kusukela ekuqaleni kwalo nyaka, isimo se-geopolitical siye sashuba, futhi iphethini yokuphakelwa kwamandla emhlabeni jikelele kanye nesidingo kuye kwasheshisa ukuhlelwa kabusha kwayo. Indlela yokuqinisekisa ukuphepha kwamandla sekuphenduke umbuzo wezikhathi.
IBhange Lomhlaba liveza ukuthi kusukela ekuqaleni kwalo nyaka, umthelela wezingxabano zezwe emananini entengo yempahla ulinganiselwe, okungase kubonise ikhono elithuthukisiwe lomnotho womhlaba lokudonsa ukushaqeka kwentengo kawoyela. Kodwa-ke, uma izingxabano zezwe sezandile, umbono wezintengo zempahla uzofiphala ngokushesha. Izinto ezifana nezingxabano zezwe, ukuwohloka komnotho, ukwehla kwamandla emali okuphezulu nezinga lenzalo kuzoqhubeka nokuba nomthelela wokunikezwa kukawoyela negesi emhlabeni wonke nezintengo kuze kube ngu-2024.
I-Great Power Diplomacy Igqamisa I-Charm kanye Nokuthuthukiswa Kokubambisana Kwamandla
Kulo nyaka, ukuxoxisana kweChina njengezwe elikhulu elinezici zesiShayina kuthuthukiswe ngokuphelele, kwabonisa ubuhle bayo, futhi kukhuthazwa ukusebenzisana kwamandla ngamazwe ngamazwe ngezinzuzo ezihambisanayo kanye nezinzuzo ezifanayo ezilinganisweni eziningi kanye namazinga ajulile. Ngo-Ephreli, i-China ne-France basayine izivumelwano ezintsha zokubambisana kuwoyela negesi, amandla enuzi kanye “ne-solar hydrogen yomoya”. NgoMeyi, iNgqungquthela yokuqala yase-China yase-Asia yabanjwa, futhi amazwe ase-China kanye namazwe ase-Asia Ephakathi aqhubeka nokwakha ubudlelwane bokuguqula amandla "amafutha negesi + amandla amasha". Ngenyanga kaNcwaba, i-China neNingizimu Afrika baqhubekile nokujulisa ukubambisana emikhakheni eminingi ebalulekile njengemithombo yamandla kanye nokuthuthukiswa kohlaza. NgoMfumfu, kwabanjwa ngempumelelo isiGungu sesithathu seNgqungquthela Yokubambisana Yamazwe Ngamazwe “yeBelt and Road”, kwakha impumelelo engama-458; Ngayo leyo nyanga, i-5th China Russia Energy Business Forum yabanjwa, yasayina izivumelwano ezingaba ngu-20.
Kuyafaneleka ukubalula ukuthi kulo nyaka sigubha iminyaka eyi-10 kwaqalwa uhlelo lokwakha ngokubambisana “Ibhande Nomgwaqo”. Njengesinyathelo esibalulekile sokugqugquzela ukuvulwa kweShayina kanye nenkundla esebenzayo yokugqugquzela ukwakhiwa komphakathi onekusasa elihlanganyelwe lesintu, impumelelo yesinyathelo sokwakha ngokuhlanganyela “Ibhande Nomgwaqo” kule minyaka eyi-10 edlule inconywe kakhulu futhi inemithelela efinyelela kude. Ukubambisana kwezamandla ngaphansi kohlelo lwe-"Belt and Road" bekulokhu kujula futhi kuzuzisa imiphumela enezithelo kule minyaka eyi-10 edlule, kuzuzisa abantu bamazwe nezifunda ukwakha ngokubambisana, futhi kusiza ekwakheni ikusasa lamandla aluhlaza futhi abandakanyayo.
Ukukhishwa kwamanzi angcolile enuzi eJapan olwandle kukhathazwa kakhulu umphakathi wamazwe ngamazwe
Kusukela ngomhla zingama-24 ku-Agasti, amanzi angcolile asuka esikhungweni samandla enyukliya i-Fukushima Daiichi e-Japan azokhishelwa olwandle, ngokuchithwa okulinganiselwe okungamathani angu-31200 wamanzi angcolile enuzi ngo-2023. Uhlelo lwaseJapane lokukhiphela amanzi angcolile enuzi olwandle belulokhu luqhubeka iminyaka engu-30 noma ngisho nangaphezulu, futhi kubeka izingozi ezicashile.
I-Japan ishintshile ingozi yokungcoliswa kwengozi yenuzi yase-Fukushima yayisa emazweni angomakhelwane kanye nemvelo ezungezile, okubangela ukulimala kwesibili emhlabeni, okungahambisani nokusetshenziswa ngokuthula kwamandla enuzi futhi engakwazi ukulawula ukusabalala kokungcola kwenuzi. Izihlakaniphi zamazwe ngamazwe ziye zaveza ukuthi iJapane akufanele nje ithathe ngokungathi sína ukukhathazeka kwabantu bayo, kodwa futhi ibhekane nokukhathazeka okuqinile komphakathi wamazwe ngamazwe, ikakhulukazi amazwe angomakhelwane. Ngesimo sengqondo esinomthwalo wemfanelo nesakhayo, i-Japan kufanele ixhumane nabathintekayo futhi ithathe ngokungathi sína izimfuno zabo ezisemthethweni zokuhlonza umonakalo nesinxephezelo.
Ukunwetshwa okusheshayo kwamandla ahlanzekile e-China, kusebenzisa amandla ayo okuphayona
Ngaphansi kwendikimba ye-green and low-carbon, amandla ahlanzekile aqhubekile nokuthuthuka kakhulu kulo nyaka. Ngokusho kwedatha evela ku-International Energy Agency, umthamo ofakiwe emhlabeni wonke wamandla avuselelekayo kulindeleke ukuthi ukhuphuke ngamagigawathi ayi-107 ekupheleni kwalo nyaka, nesamba esifakiwe somthamo wamagigawathi angaphezu kuka-440, okuphawula ukwanda okukhulu kakhulu emlandweni.
Ngaso leso sikhathi, utshalomali lwamandla omhlaba kulindeleke ukuthi lube ngamaRandi ayizigidi eziyizinkulungwane ezingama-2.8 kulo nyaka, nokutshalwa kwezimali kobuchwepheshe bamandla ahlanzekile okwedlula amadola aseMelika ayizigidi eziyizinkulungwane eziyi-1.7, okudlula ukutshalwa kwezimali kumafutha ezinto ezimbiwa phansi njengowoyela.
Kuyaphawuleka ukuthi iminyaka eminingi iChina, ebilokhu ikleliswe endaweni yokuqala emhlabeni ngokomthamo womoya namandla elanga, idlala indima yokuphayona futhi ehamba phambili.
Kuze kube manje, izinjini zomoya zaseShayina zithunyelwe emazweni nasezifundeni ezingama-49, ukukhiqizwa kwenjini yomoya okungaphezu kuka-50% wesabelo semakethe yomhlaba wonke. Phakathi kwamabhizinisi ayishumi aphezulu aphehla umoya emhlabeni jikelele, angu-6 avela eChina. Imboni ye-photovoltaic yaseChina igqame kakhulu ezixhumanisini eziyinhloko njengama-silicon wafers, amaseli ebhethri, namamojula, athatha ngaphezu kwama-80% wesabelo semakethe yomhlaba wonke, okubonisa ngempumelelo ukuqashelwa kwemakethe kobuchwepheshe baseShayina.
Imboni ibikezela ukuthi ngonyaka wezi-2030, uhlelo lwamandla omhlaba luzobhekana nezinguquko ezinkulu, amandla avuselelekayo azobalelwa cishe ku-50% wesakhiwo sikagesi emhlabeni jikelele. Imi phambili, i-China Zhengyuanyuan iqhubeka nokuletha amandla aluhlaza ukuze kuguqulwe amandla omhlaba.
Uguquko lwamandla aseYurophu naseMelika lubhekene nezithiyo, imigoqo yokuhweba iphakamisa ukukhathazeka
Nakuba amandla afakwe emhlabeni wonke wamandla avuselelekayo akhula ngokushesha, ukuthuthukiswa kwemboni yamandla ahlanzekile emazweni ase-Europe ne-America kuvame ukuvinjelwa, futhi izindaba ze-supply chain ziyaqhubeka nokunyakazisa izinzwa zamazwe ase-Europe naseMelika.
Izindleko eziphezulu kanye nokuphazamiseka kochungechunge lokuhlinzekwa kwemishini kuholele ekulahlekelweni kwabakhiqizi bezinjini zomoya base-Europe naseMelika, okuholele ekwandiseni umthamo ohamba kancane kanye nochungechunge lonjiniyela abahoxa kumaphrojekthi wamandla omoya asogwini e-United States nase-United Kingdom.
Emkhakheni wamandla elanga, ezinyangeni eziyisishiyagalombili zokuqala zalo nyaka, abakhiqizi abakhulu be-15 baseYurophu bakhiqiza ingqikithi ye-gigawatt ye-1 yamamojula elanga, kuphela i-11% yenkathi efanayo ngonyaka odlule.
Ngaso leso sikhathi, izikhulu ze-EU zikhulume esidlangalaleni ukuthi ziqalise uphenyo oluphikisana nokuxhaswa kwemikhiqizo yaseChina yamandla omoya. Umthetho Wokwehliswa Kokwehla Kwamanani Emali oshaywe yi-United States uqhubeka uvimbela imikhiqizo yangaphandle ye-photovoltaic ukuthi ingangeni emakethe yase-US, wehlisa isivinini sokutshalwa kwezimali, ukwakhiwa, kanye nesivinini sokuxhunywa kwegridi yamaphrojekthi kagesi welanga e-United States.
Ukubhekana nokushintsha kwesimo sezulu kanye nokuzuza uguquko lwamandla angeke kuhlukaniswe nokubambisana komhlaba wonke. Amazwe aseYurophu nawaseMelika aqhubeka ebeka imigoqo yezohwebo, empeleni “elimaza abanye esikhundleni sokuzicabangela bona.” Kuphela ngokugcina ukuvuleka kwemakethe yomhlaba wonke lapho singakhuthaza ngokuhlanganyela ukuncishiswa kwezindleko zomoya nelanga futhi sizuze isimo sokuwina kuzo zonke izinhlangano.
Ukwanda kwesidingo samaminerali abalulekile, ukuphepha kokuhlinzekwa kukhathazeke kakhulu
Ukuthuthukiswa komfula kwemithombo yezimbiwa ezibalulekile kushisa ngendlela engakaze ibonwe. Ukukhula okugqame kakhulu ekusetshenzisweni kobuchwepheshe bamandla ahlanzekile kubangele ukwanda kwesidingo samaminerali abalulekile amelwe i-lithium, i-nickel, i-cobalt, nethusi. Izinga lokutshalwa kwezimali phezulu kwezimbiwa ezibalulekile likhule ngokushesha, futhi amazwe alisheshise kakhulu isivinini sokuthuthukiswa kwezimbiwa zakuleli.
Ukuthatha izinto zokusetshenziswa kwebhethri ye-lithium njengesibonelo, kusukela ngo-2017 kuya ku-2022, isidingo se-lithium emhlabeni wonke sikhuphuke cishe izikhathi ezintathu, isidingo se-cobalt senyuke ngo-70%, futhi isidingo se-nickel senyuke ngo-40%. Isidingo esikhulu esitholakala ezansi nomfula siye savusa umdlandla wokuhlola okhuphuka nomfula, okwenza amachibi anosawoti, izimayini, ulwandle, ngisho nemigodi yentaba-mlilo kube ingcebo yengcebo.
Kuyaphawuleka ukuthi amazwe amaningi abalulekile akhiqiza izimbiwa emhlabeni wonke akhethe ukuqinisa izinqubomgomo zawo zokuthuthukiswa komfula. I-Chile ikhipha “Isu Le-Lithium Likazwelonke” futhi izosungula inkampani yezimbiwa zikahulumeni; Isiphakamiso saseMexico sokwenza izinsiza zezimayini ze-lithium zibe ngaphansi kukahulumeni; I-Indonesia iqinisa ukulawula kwayo okuphethwe uhulumeni phezu kwezinsiza ze-nickel ore. I-Chile, i-Argentina, ne-Bolivia, ehlanganisa ngaphezu kwesigamu sengqikithi yemithombo ye-lithium yomhlaba, iya ngokuya ihileleka ekuhwebeni, futhi i-“OPEC Lithium Mine” isizovela.
Imithombo yezimbiwa ezibalulekile isiphenduke “uwoyela omusha” emakethe yamandla, futhi ukuvikeleka kokunikezwa kwezimbiwa kuye kwaba yisihluthulelo sokuthuthukiswa okuqhubekayo kwamandla ahlanzekile. Ukuqinisa ukuvikeleka kwezimbiwa ezibalulekile kubalulekile.
Ezinye zilahliwe, ezinye ziyakhuthazwa, futhi impikiswano ngokusetshenziswa kwenuzi iyaqhubeka
Ngo-April walo nyaka, iJalimane yamemezela ukuvalwa kwezikhungo zayo zokugcina amandla enuzi ezintathu, ingena ngokusemthethweni “enkathini yamahhala yenuzi” futhi yaba isenzakalo esiyingqopha-mlando embonini yamandla enyukliya yomhlaba wonke. Isizathu esikhulu sokuyeka iJalimane amandla enuzi ukukhathazeka ngokuphepha kwenuzi, okuphinde kube yinselelo enkulu ebhekene nemboni yamandla enuzi emhlabeni wonke njengamanje. Ekuqaleni kwalo nyaka, isikhungo samandla enuzi saseMonticello, ebesisebenza e-United States iminyaka engaphezu kwesigamu sekhulu, savalwa naso ngenxa yezinkinga zokuphepha.
Izindleko eziphakeme zemiklamo emisha yokwakha nazo “ziyisivimbamgwaqo” endleleni yokuthuthukiswa kwamandla enuzi. Ukweqa kwezindleko ezinzima zamaphrojekthi weYunithi 3 kanye neYunithi 4 Yesikhungo Samandla Enuzi iVogt ö hler e-United States kuyindaba evamile.
Nakuba kunezinselele eziningi, izici ezihlanzekile nekhabhoni ephansi zokukhiqizwa kwamandla enuzi zisawenza asebenze esigabeni samandla omhlaba. Phakathi nalo nyaka, i-Japan, eye yaba nezingozi ezimbi kakhulu zamandla enuzi, yamemezela ukuqaliswa kabusha kwezikhungo zokuphehla amandla enuzi ukuze kuzinziswe ukuhlinzekwa kukagesi; I-France, ethembele kakhulu emandleni enuzi, yamemezela ukuthi izohlinzeka ngama-euro angaphezu kwezigidi eziyi-100 ekuxhaseni imboni yayo yasekhaya yamandla enuzi eminyakeni eyi-10 ezayo; IFinland, iNdiya, ngisho ne-United States zonke ziye zasho ukuthi zizoyithuthukisa ngamandla imboni yamandla enuzi.
Amandla enuzi ahlanzekile kanye nekhabhoni ephansi abelokhu ethathwa njengethuluzi elibalulekile lokubhekana nokushintsha kwesimo sezulu, futhi indlela yokuthuthukisa amandla enuzi ngezinga eliphezulu sekuyindaba ebalulekile ekuguquleni amandla kagesi emhlabeni wamanje.
Isikhathi sezinsalela zokuhlanganiswa okukhulu okuphindaphindiwe nokutholwa kukawoyela negesi asikakapheli
I-ExxonMobil, inkampani kawoyela enkulu kunazo zonke e-United States, i-Chevron, okuyinkampani kawoyela yesibili ngobukhulu, kanye ne-Western Oil Company bonke baqhube ukuhlanganiswa nokuthengwa okukhulu kulo nyaka, okulethe inani eliphelele lokuhlanganisa nokutholwa embonini kawoyela negesi yaseNyakatho Melika ku-$124.5 billion. Imboni ilindele igagasi elisha lokuhlangana nokutholwa embonini kawoyela negesi.
Ngo-Okthoba, i-ExxonMobil yamemezela ukutholwa okuphethwe ngokuphelele komkhiqizi we-shale i-Vanguard Natural Resources cishe ngamaRandi ayizigidi eziyizinkulungwane ezingu-60, okumaka ukutholwa kwayo okukhulu kunayo yonke kusukela ngo-1999. I-Chevron yamemezela ngenyanga efanayo ukuthi izotshala amaRandi ayizigidi eziyizinkulungwane ezingu-53 ukuze ithole umkhiqizi kawoyela negesi waseMelika u-Hess, okuphinde kube yimpahla yayo enkulu kunazo zonke emlandweni. NgoDisemba, izinkampani zikawoyela zaseNtshonalanga zamemezela ukutholwa kwenkampani kawoyela we-shale negesi yase-US ngamadola ayizigidi eziyizinkulungwane eziyi-12.
Abakhiqizi abakhulu bakawoyela negesi bahlala bekhulisa ibhizinisi labo elikhuphuka nomfula, okubangela igagasi elisha lokuhlanganisa. Izinkampani zamandla eziningi zizoqinisa ukuncintisana kwazo ngempahla kawoyela negesi ehamba phambili ukuze kuqinisekiswe ukutholakala okuzinzile emashumini ambalwa eminyaka ezayo. Nakuba kube nezingxoxo eziqhubekayo mayelana nokuthi isidingo sikawoyela esiphezulu sesifikile yini, singaqiniseka ukuthi inkathi yezinsalela zakudala ayikafiki esiphethweni.
Ushintsho olungokomlando lwesidingo samalahle esifinyelela ezingeni eliphezulu lungase lufike
Ngo-2023, isidingo samalahle emhlabeni wonke safinyelela ezingeni eliphezulu elisha lomlando, nenani eliphelele elingaphezu kwamathani ayizigidi eziyizinkulungwane ezingu-8.5.
Sekukonke, ukugcizelelwa kwamandla ahlanzekile ngamazwe ezingeni lenqubomgomo kunciphise izinga lokukhula kwesidingo samalahle emhlabeni jikelele, kodwa amalahle ahlala "eyitshe le-ballast" lezinhlelo zamandla zamazwe amaningi.
Ngokombono wezimo zemakethe, imakethe yamalahle empeleni isiphumile esikhathini sokuguquguquka okubukhali kokuhlinzekwa kwempahla okubangelwa isimo esiwubhubhane, ukungqubuzana kweRussia-Ukraine nezinye izici, futhi izinga eliphakathi lamanani amalahle emhlabeni wonke lehlile. Ngokombono wohlangothi lokunikezela, amalahle aseRussia maningi amathuba okuthi angene emakethe ngentengo ehlisiwe ngenxa yezinhlawulo ezibekwe amazwe aseYurophu nawaseMelika; Umthamo wamazwe akhiqiza amalahle emazweni angaphandle anjenge-Indonesia, Mozambique kanye neNingizimu Afrika unyukile, njengoba umthamo wamalahle e-Indonesia othunyelwa kwamanye amazwe ususondele kumathani ayizigidi ezingama-500, nokubeka umlando omusha emlandweni.
Ngokubona kwe-International Energy Agency, isidingo samalahle emhlabeni wonke kungenzeka sifinyelele endaweni eyingqophamlando ngenxa yomthelela wezinqubo nezinqubomgomo zokunciphisa ikhabhoni emazweni ahlukahlukene. Njengoba umthamo ofakiwe wamandla avuselelekayo udlula izinga lokukhula kwesidingo sikagesi, isidingo sikagesi wamalahle singase sibonise ukwehla, futhi ukusetshenziswa kwamalahle njengophethiloli wezinto ezimbiwa phansi kulindeleke ukuthi kwehle “ngokwesakhiwo”.
Isikhathi sokuthumela: Jan-02-2024
