Vuto la mphamvu likukulirakulira chifukwa cha kuzizira koopsa, mphamvu zapadziko lonse lapansi zakhala zikulirakulira
Posachedwapa, gasi wakhala chinthu chomwe chikukwera kwambiri chaka chino. Deta yamsika ikuwonetsa kuti chaka chatha, mtengo wa LNG ku Asia wakwera pafupifupi 600%; kuwonjezeka kwa gasi ku Ulaya n’koopsa kwambiri. Mtengo mu July unawonjezeka ndi zoposa 1,000% poyerekeza ndi May chaka chatha; ngakhale United States, yomwe ili ndi mpweya wochuluka wa gasi, sangapirire. , Mtengo wa gasi kamodzi unafika pamlingo wapamwamba kwambiri pazaka 10 zapitazi.
Nthawi yomweyo, mafuta adakwera kwambiri m'zaka zingapo. Kuyambira 9:10 pa October 8, nthawi ya Beijing, tsogolo la mafuta a Brent linakwera kuposa 1% mpaka $ 82.82 pa mbiya, apamwamba kwambiri kuyambira October 2018. Patsiku lomwelo, WTI mafuta amtundu wa mafuta a WTI adapambana bwino US $ 78 / mbiya, nthawi yoyamba kuyambira November 2014.
Akatswiri ena akukhulupirira kuti vuto la mphamvu zamagetsi likhoza kukhala lalikulu kwambiri m’nyengo yozizira kwambiri, yomwe yakhala ikuchenjeza za vuto la magetsi padziko lonse.
Malinga ndi lipoti la "Economic Daily", pafupifupi mtengo wamagetsi ku Spain ndi Portugal kumayambiriro kwa September unali pafupifupi katatu mtengo wapakati miyezi isanu ndi umodzi yapitayo, pa 175 euro pa MWh; Mtengo wamagetsi waku Dutch TTF unali 74.15 mayuro pa MWh. Nthawi 4 kuposa mu Marichi; Mitengo yamagetsi ku UK yafika pa 183.84 euros.
Kupitilira kukwera kwa mitengo ya gasi ndiko "choyambitsa" vuto lamagetsi ku Europe. Chicago Mercantile Exchange Henry Hub zam'tsogolo za gasi wachilengedwe ndi tsogolo la gasi la Dutch Title Transfer Center (TTF) ndizizindikiro ziwiri zazikulu zamitengo ya gasi. Pakalipano, mitengo ya mgwirizano wa October ya onsewa yafika pamtunda wapamwamba kwambiri wa chaka. Deta imasonyeza kuti mitengo ya gasi ku Asia yakwera maulendo 6 m'chaka chapitacho, Ulaya yakwera maulendo 10 m'miyezi ya 14, ndipo mitengo ku United States yafika pamtunda wawo wapamwamba m'zaka 10.
Msonkhano wa nduna za EU kumapeto kwa Seputembala udakambirana mwachindunji za kukwera mtengo kwa gasi ndi magetsi. Atumikiwo adagwirizana kuti zomwe zikuchitika panopa ndi "nthawi yovuta" ndipo adadzudzula kuti 280% kuwonjezeka kwa mitengo ya gasi chaka chino pamtengo wochepa wa kusungirako gasi ndi ku Russia. Zoletsa, kupanga mphamvu zochepa zongowonjezwdwa komanso kuchuluka kwa zinthu zomwe zikuyenda pansi pa inflation ndi zinthu zingapo.
Mayiko ena omwe ali m'bungwe la EU akukonzekera mwachangu njira zotetezera ogula: Dziko la Spain limapereka ndalama zothandizira ogula pochepetsa mitengo yamagetsi ndi kubweza ndalama kuchokera kumakampani omwe amagwira ntchito; France imapereka chithandizo chamagetsi ndi misonkho kwa mabanja osauka; Italy ndi Greece akuganizira za subsidies Kapena kukhazikitsa mitengo yamtengo wapatali ndi njira zina zotetezera nzika ku zotsatira za kukwera kwa mtengo wamagetsi, komanso kuonetsetsa kuti ntchito za boma zikuyenda bwino.
Koma vuto ndi loti gasi ndi gawo lofunika kwambiri la mphamvu za ku Ulaya ndipo amadalira kwambiri zinthu za ku Russia. Kudalira kumeneku kwakhala vuto lalikulu m’maiko ambiri mitengo ikakwera.
Bungwe la International Energy Agency limakhulupirira kuti m'dziko ladziko lonse lapansi, mavuto okhudzana ndi mphamvu zamagetsi akhoza kufalikira komanso kwa nthawi yayitali, makamaka pazochitika zadzidzidzi zosiyanasiyana zomwe zimayambitsa kuwonongeka kwa kayendetsedwe ka kayendetsedwe ka kayendetsedwe ka kayendetsedwe ka kayendetsedwe ka kayendetsedwe ka kayendetsedwe ka kayendetsedwe ka kayendetsedwe ka kayendetsedwe ka kayendetsedwe ka kayendetsedwe ka kayendetsedwe ka kayendetsedwe ka kayendetsedwe ka kayendetsedwe ka kayendetsedwe ka kayendetsedwe ka kayendetsedwe ka kayendetsedwe ka kayendetsedwe ka kayendetsedwe ka kayendetsedwe ka kayendetsedwe ka kayendetsedwe ka kayendetsedwe ka kayendetsedwe ka kayendetsedwe ka kayendetsedwe ka kayendetsedwe ka kayendetsedwe ka kayendetsedwe ka kayendetsedwe ka kayendetsedwe ka kayendetsedwe ka kayendetsedwe ka kayendetsedwe ka kayendetsedwe ka kayendetsedwe ka kayendetsedwe ka kayendetsedwe kake kuti athetse kusintha kwa nyengo.
Pakali pano, mphamvu zongowonjezereka za ku Ulaya sizingathe kudzaza kusiyana kwa mphamvu zamagetsi. Deta ikuwonetsa kuti pofika chaka cha 2020, magwero a mphamvu zongowonjezwdwa ku Europe apanga 38% yamagetsi a EU, kuposa mafuta amafuta kwanthawi yoyamba m'mbiri, ndipo akhala gwero lalikulu lamagetsi ku Europe. Komabe, ngakhale nyengo yabwino kwambiri, mphepo ndi mphamvu ya dzuwa sizingathe kupanga magetsi okwanira 100% pachaka.
Malinga ndi kafukufuku wa Bruegel, bungwe lalikulu la oganiza bwino la EU, pakapita nthawi yochepa, maiko a EU apitirizabe kukumana ndi mavuto amagetsi asanapangidwe mabatire akuluakulu osungira mphamvu zowonjezera.
Britain: kusowa kwamafuta, kusowa kwa madalaivala!
Kukwera mtengo kwa gasi kwapangitsanso kuti zikhale zovuta ku UK.
Malingana ndi malipoti, mtengo wamtengo wapatali wa gasi wachilengedwe ku UK wakwera ndi 250% pa chaka, ndipo ogulitsa ambiri omwe sanasaine mapangano amtengo wapatali a nthawi yayitali ataya kwambiri chifukwa cha kukwera kwa mitengo.
Kuyambira mu Ogasiti, makampani opitilira XNUMX a gasi kapena mphamvu zamagetsi ku UK adalengeza motsatizana kuti bankirapuse kapena kukakamizidwa kutseka bizinesi yawo, zomwe zidapangitsa kuti makasitomala opitilira 1.7 miliyoni ataya ogulitsa awo, ndipo kukakamizidwa kwamakampani opanga magetsi kukupitilira kukwera.
Ndalama zogwiritsira ntchito mphamvu zopangira magetsi zakweranso. Pamene mavuto operekera ndi osowa ayamba kuonekera kwambiri, mtengo wa magetsi ku UK wawonjezeka ndi nthawi zoposa 7 poyerekeza ndi chaka chatha, ndikuyika mwachindunji mbiri yapamwamba kwambiri kuyambira 1999. Zokhudzidwa ndi zinthu monga kukwera kwa magetsi ndi kusowa kwa chakudya, masitolo ena akuluakulu ku UK adabedwa mwachindunji ndi anthu.
Kuchepa kwa ogwira ntchito chifukwa cha "Brexit" komanso mliri watsopano wa korona wakulitsa kusamvana pakugulitsa zinthu ku UK.
Theka la malo opangira mafuta ku UK alibe mafuta oti adzazenso. Boma la Britain lawonjezera mwachangu ma visa a madalaivala 5,000 akunja mpaka 2022, ndipo pa Okutobala 4, nthawi yakumaloko, adasonkhanitsa asitikali pafupifupi 200 kuti achite nawo ntchito yonyamula mafuta. Komabe, akatswiri amakhulupirira kuti vutoli ndi lovuta kuthetsa kwathunthu pakapita nthawi.
Padziko Lonse: Pavuto lamagetsi?
Si mayiko a ku Ulaya okha omwe akuvutika ndi vuto la mphamvu, maiko ena omwe akutukuka kumene, ndipo ngakhale United States, wogulitsa mphamvu kunja kwa dziko, alibe chitetezo.
Malinga ndi nyuzipepala ya Bloomberg News, chilala choopsa kwambiri ku Brazil m’zaka 91 zachititsa kuti mphamvu zopangira magetsi opangidwa ndi madzi zigwe. Ngati magetsi ochokera ku Uruguay ndi Argentina sakuwonjezeka, zikhoza kukakamiza dziko la South America kuti liyambe kuletsa magetsi.
Pofuna kuchepetsa kugwa kwa gridi yamagetsi, dziko la Brazil likuyambitsa majenereta a gasi achilengedwe kuti abwezere zotayika zomwe zimadza chifukwa cha kupanga magetsi opangira magetsi. Izi zikukakamiza boma kuti lipikisane ndi mayiko ena pamsika wamafuta achilengedwe padziko lonse lapansi, zomwe zitha kukwezanso mitengo ya gasi.
Kumbali ina ya dziko lapansi, India akudanso ndi magetsi.
Katswiri wazachuma ku Nomura Financial Consulting and Securities India Aurodeep Nandi adati makampani opanga magetsi aku India akukumana ndi mkuntho wabwino kwambiri: kufunikira kwakukulu, kutsika kwanyumba, komanso kusabwezanso zinthu zomwe zidachokera kunja.
Panthawi imodzimodziyo, mtengo wa malasha ku Indonesia, m'modzi mwa ogulitsa kwambiri a malasha ku India, adakwera kuchoka ku US $ 60 pa tani mu March kufika ku US $ 200 pa tani mu September, kukhumudwitsa ku India kulawa malasha. Ngati zinthu sizikukwaniritsidwanso munthawi yake, India angafunike kuchepetsa magetsi kumabizinesi omwe amagwiritsa ntchito mphamvu zambiri komanso nyumba zogona.
Monga dziko lalikulu lotumizira gasi kunja, United States ndiyonso yofunika kwambiri yoperekera gasi ku Ulaya. Kukhudzidwa ndi mphepo yamkuntho Ida kumapeto kwa August, osati kuperekedwa kwa gasi ku Ulaya kokha, komanso mtengo wamagetsi okhalamo ku United States wawukanso.
Kuchepetsa kwa mpweya wa carbon kumazika mizu kwambiri ndipo kumpoto kwa dziko lapansi kwalowa m'nyengo yozizira. Ngakhale mphamvu yopangira magetsi otenthetsera yachepetsedwa, kufunikira kwa magetsi kwachulukadi, zomwe zakulitsanso kusiyana kwa magetsi. Mitengo yamagetsi yakwera kwambiri m’mayiko ambiri padziko lonse lapansi. Mitengo yamagetsi ku UK yakweranso nthawi 10. Monga nthumwi yodziwika bwino ya mphamvu zongowonjezwdwa, mphamvu yamagetsi yowongoka zachilengedwe komanso yotsika mpweya wa carbon ili ndi mwayi waukulu panthawiyi. Pankhani yakukwera kwamitengo pamsika wamagetsi wapadziko lonse lapansi, khazikitsani mwamphamvu ntchito zamagetsi zamagetsi, ndikugwiritsa ntchito mphamvu yamadzi kuti mudzaze kusiyana kwa msika komwe kunasiyidwa ndi kuchepa kwa mphamvu zamagetsi zamagetsi.
Nthawi yotumiza: Oct-12-2021
