Nyika muna 2023 ichiri kutatarika mukutarisana nemiedzo yakaoma. Kuitika kwemamiriro ekunze akaipisisa kakawanda, kupararira kwemoto wemusango mumakomo nemasango, uye kudengenyeka kwenyika nemafashamo… Zvakakosha kugadzirisa shanduko yemamiriro ekunze; Gakava reRussia neUkraine harina kupera, gakava rePalestine Israel ratangazve, uye dambudziko rezvematongerwo enyika rakakonzera kuchinja-chinja mumusika wesimba.
Pakati pekuchinja uku, shanduko yesimba reChina yakawana mhedzisiro inoshamisa, ichipa mipiro yakanaka mukuvandudzwa kwehupfumi hwenyika pamwe nekukura kwezvakatipoteredza pasi rose.
Dhipatimendi rekunyora reChina Energy Daily rakaongorora nhau gumi dzepamusoro dzepasi rose dzesimba dzegore ra2023, rikaongorora mamiriro acho ezvinhu, uye rakaona mafambiro ese ari kuitika.
Kushandira pamwe kweUS kunotungamira nyika dzepasi rose mukutonga kwemamiriro ekunze
Kushandira pamwe kweChina neUS kwawedzera simba idzva mukuita shanduko dzemamiriro ekunze pasi rose. Musi wa15 Mbudzi, vatungamiriri venyika dzeChina neUnited States vakasangana kuti vataurirane pachena nezvenyaya huru dzine chekuita nehukama hwenyika mbiri idzi uye rugare nebudiriro yepasi rose; Pazuva rimwe chete, nyika mbiri idzi dzakaburitsa chiziviso cheSunshine Town pamusoro pekusimbisa kushandira pamwe kugadzirisa dambudziko remamiriro ekunze. Matanho akatevedzana anoratidza kushandira pamwe kwakadzama pakati pemativi maviri panyaya dzekuchinja kwemamiriro ekunze, uye zvakare kuwedzera chivimbo mukutonga kwemamiriro ekunze pasi rose.
Kubva musi wa30 Mbudzi kusvika 13 Zvita, Musangano wechi28 weMapato eUnited Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change wakaitirwa muDubai, United Arab Emirates. Mapato 198 akabvumirana kuti asvike pakubvumirana kukuru pamusoro pezvinhu zvekutanga zvepasi rose zveParis Agreement, mari yekurasikirwa nekukuvadzwa kwemamiriro ekunze, uye shanduko yakarurama uye yakaenzana. China neUnited States dziri kuwedzera kushandira pamwe uye kuunganidza simba panyaya dzekuchinja kwemamiriro ekunze, zvichitumira zviratidzo zvakanaka pasi rose.
Dambudziko reGeopolitical Riri Kuenderera Mberi, Maonero Emusika weSimba Haana Kujeka
Gakava reRussia neUkraine rakaramba richienderera mberi, gakava rePalestine Israel rakatangazve, uye dambudziko reGungwa Dzvuku rakatanga. Kubva pakutanga kwegore rino, mamiriro ezvinhu ezvematongerwo enyika akawedzera, uye maitiro ekupa simba pasi rose nekudiwa kwaro akakurumidzisa kugadziriswa kwaro. Maitiro ekuona kuti simba rakachengeteka ave mubvunzo wenguva ino.
Bhengi reNyika rinotaura kuti kubvira kutanga kwegore rino, kusawirirana kwezvematongerwo enyika pamitengo yezvinhu kwave kushoma, izvo zvinogona kuratidza kugona kuri nani kwehupfumi hwenyika kubvisa kukanganiswa kwemitengo yemafuta. Zvisinei, kana kusawirirana kwezvematongerwo enyika kwawedzera, tarisiro yemitengo yezvinhu ichakurumidza kusviba. Zvinhu zvakaita sekusawirirana kwezvematongerwo enyika, kudzikira kwehupfumi, kukwira kwemitengo uye mitengo yemubereko zvicharamba zvichikanganisa kuwanikwa kwemafuta negesi pasi rose kusvika muna 2024.
Hurukuro dzeHurumende Dzinosimudzira Kuvandudzwa kweKunaka uye Kushandira Pamwe Chete Kwesimba
Gore rino, diplomacy yeChina senyika huru ine hunhu hweChina yakasimudzirwa zvizere, ichiratidza runako rwayo, uye ichikurudzira kushandira pamwe kwesimba pasi rose nekubatsirana pamwe chete pamwe chete pamatanho akasiyana-siyana uye zvakadzama. Muna Kubvumbi, China neFrance dzakasaina zvibvumirano zvitsva zvakawanda zvekushandira pamwe pamafuta negesi, simba renyukireya, uye "hydrogen yezuva yemhepo". Muna Chivabvu, Musangano wekutanga weChina Asia wakaitwa, uye China nenyika dzeCentral Asia dzakaramba dzichivaka mubatanidzwa we "mafuta negesi + simba idzva". Muna Nyamavhuvhu, China neSouth Africa dzakaramba dzichiwedzera kushandira pamwe munzvimbo dzakawanda dzakakosha dzakadai sezviwanikwa zvesimba uye budiriro yezvakatipoteredza. Muna Gumiguru, Musangano wechitatu we "Belt and Road" International Cooperation Forum wakaitwa zvinobudirira, uchiumba 458 kubudirira; Mumwedzi mumwe chete, Musangano wechishanu weChina Russia Energy Business Forum wakaitwa, uchisaina zvibvumirano zvinosvika makumi maviri.
Zvakakosha kutaura kuti gore rino rinocherechedza makore gumi echirongwa chekuvaka pamwe chete "Belt and Road". Senzira yakakosha yekusimudzira kuvhurwa kweChina uye puratifomu inoshanda yekusimudzira kuvaka nharaunda ine ramangwana rakafanana revanhu, kubudirira kwechirongwa chekuvaka pamwe chete "Belt and Road" mumakore gumi apfuura kwave kuchirumbidzwa zvikuru uye kune zvakunoreva zvakawanda. Kushandira pamwe kwesimba pasi pechirongwa che "Belt and Road" kwave kuchikura uye kuchiwana mhedzisiro inobatsira mumakore gumi apfuura, kuchibatsira vanhu venyika nenzvimbo vachivaka pamwe chete, uye kubatsira kuvaka ramangwana resimba rakachena uye rinobatanidza vanhu vose.
Kubuda kwemvura ine nyukireya mugungwa muJapan kuri kushushikana zvikuru nenharaunda yepasi rose
Kubva musi wa24 Nyamavhuvhu, mvura yakasviba inobva kuFukushima Daiichi nyukireya plant muJapan ichaburitswa mugungwa, uye inofungidzirwa kuti mvura yakasviba yenyukireya inosvika matani 31200 panosvika gore ra2023. Chirongwa cheJapan chekubuditsa mvura yakasviba yenyukireya mugungwa chave chichienderera mberi kwemakore makumi matatu kana kupfuura, zvichikonzera njodzi huru nenjodzi dzakavanda.
Japan yakachinja njodzi yekusvibiswa kubva mutsaona yenyukireya yeFukushima kuenda kunyika dziri pedyo nenzvimbo dzakapoteredza, zvichikonzera kukuvadzwa kwechipiri pasi rose, izvo zvisingabatsire kushandiswa kwesimba renyukireya murunyararo uye hazvigone kudzora kupararira kwekusvibiswa kwenyukireya. Nyanzvi dzepasi rose dzakataura kuti Japan haifanire kungotora zvakakomba zvinonetsa zvevanhu vayo, asiwo kutarisana nematambudziko akasimba enharaunda yepasi rose, kunyanya nyika dziri pedyo. Nehunhu hwakanaka uye hunovaka, Japan inofanira kutaurirana nevanotora chikamu uye kutora zvakakomba zvikumbiro zvavo zvepamutemo zvekuzivikanwa kwekukuvara uye muripo.
Kuwedzera nekukurumidza kwesimba rakachena muChina, zvichishandisa simba rayo rekutanga
Pasi pedingindira rekuti simba remagetsi rakachena raramba richikura zvakanyanya gore rino. Sekureva kwedata kubva kuInternational Energy Agency, simba remagetsi rinodzokororwa pasi rose rinotarisirwa kuwedzera nemagigawatts zana nenomwe pakupera kwegore rino, nemagetsi anodarika mazana mana nemakumi mana, zvichiratidza kuwedzera kukuru munhoroondo.
Panguva imwe chete, mari inoshandiswa pasi rose mukugadzira simba inotarisirwa kusvika pamadhora ekuAmerica ari patriliyoni 2.8 gore rino, mari inoshandiswa mukugadzira simba rakachena ichidarika madhora ekuAmerica ari patriliyoni 1.7, ichipfuura mari inoshandiswa mumafuta efossil akadai semafuta.
Zvakakosha kuziva kuti China, iyo yagara iri pamberi pasi rose maererano nemagetsi anofambiswa nemhepo uye zuva kwemakore mazhinji, iri kutamba basa guru uye rinotungamira.
Kusvika pari zvino, maturbine emhepo ekuChina akatumirwa kunyika nematunhu makumi mana nemapfumbamwe, kugadzirwa kwematurbine emhepo kuri kuita chikamu chinodarika 50% chemusika wepasi rose. Pakati pemakambani gumi epamusoro emagetsi emhepo pasi rose, matanhatu anobva kuChina. Indasitiri yemagetsi ezuva nezuva yekuChina inonyanya kuzivikanwa muzvikamu zvikuru zvakaita sema silicon wafers, mabhatiri, uye ma modules, zvichitora chikamu chinodarika 80% chemusika wepasi rose, zvichiratidza kuzivikanwa kwemusika kwetekinoroji yekuChina.
Indasitiri iyi inofanotaura kuti panosvika gore ra2030, hurongwa hwesimba repasi rose huchachinja zvakanyanya, simba rinogona kuvandudzwa richive rinosvika 50% yemagetsi epasi rose. China, Zhengyuanyuan, iri pamberi, inoramba ichipa simba rakachena rekushandura simba repasi rose.
Kuchinja kwesimba muEurope neAmerica kwakatarisana nezvipingamupinyi, zvipingamupinyi zvekutengeserana zvinomutsa kunetseka
Kunyangwe simba remagetsi rinogona kushandiswazve pasi rose riri kukura nekukurumidza, kufambira mberi kweindasitiri yesimba rakachena munyika dzeEurope neAmerica kunowanzo kanganiswa, uye nyaya dzekutengesa zvinhu dziri kuramba dzichinetsa nyika dzeEurope neAmerica.
Kudhura kwakanyanya uye kukanganiswa kwemidziyo kwakonzera kurasikirwa kwevagadziri vematurbine emhepo vekuEurope neAmerica, zvichikonzera kuwedzera kwesimba remagetsi uye vagadziri vakawanda vakabuda mumapurojekiti emagetsi emhepo ari kunze kwenyika muUnited States neUnited Kingdom.
Munyaya yesimba rezuva, mumwedzi misere yekutanga yegore rino, vagadziri vakuru gumi nevashanu vekuEurope vakagadzira huwandu hwe1 gigawatt yemamodule ezuva, 11% chete yenguva imwe chete gore rapfuura.
Panguva imwe chete, vakuru veEU vakataura pachena kuti vatange kuferefeta nezverubatsiro rwemari inoshandiswa pakugadzira magetsi emhepo eChina. Mutemo weKuderedza Kukwira Kwemitengo wakapihwa neUnited States unorambidza zvigadzirwa zvekunze zve photovoltaic kupinda mumusika weUS, zvichideredza kumhanya kwekudyara, kuvaka, uye kubatanidza mapurojekiti emagetsi ezuva muUnited States.
Kugadzirisa shanduko yemamiriro ekunze uye kuwana shanduko yesimba hazvigoni kuparadzaniswa nekushandira pamwe kwepasi rose. Nyika dzekuEurope neAmerica dzinogara dzichiisa zvipingamupinyi zvekutengeserana, izvo chaizvoizvo "zvinokuvadza vamwe pane kuzvifadza." Nekuchengetedza musika wepasi rose wakavhurika chete ndipo patinogona kukurudzira pamwe chete kudzikiswa kwemitengo yemhepo nezuva uye kuwana mamiriro ezvinhu anobatsira mapato ese.
Kudiwa kwezvicherwa kwawedzera, kuchengetedzeka kwezviwanikwa kuri kushushikana zvikuru
Kukura kwezviwanikwa zvakakosha zvezvicherwa kwakakwira zvikuru zvisati zvamboitika. Kukura kwakanyanya mukushandiswa kwetekinoroji yesimba rakachena kwakaita kuti kudiwa kwezviwanikwa zvakakosha kuwedzere kunoratidzwa ne lithium, nickel, cobalt, uye mhangura. Kudyara kwezviwanikwa zvakakosha kwakawedzera nekukurumidza, uye nyika dzakakurumidza kukurumidza kukura kwezviwanikwa zvemuno.
Tichitora zvinhu zvemabhatiri e lithium semuenzaniso, kubva muna 2017 kusvika 2022, kudiwa kwe lithium pasi rose kwakawedzera kanenge katatu, kudiwa kwe cobalt kwakawedzera ne70%, uye kudiwa kwe nickel kwakawedzera ne40%. Kudiwa kukuru kwemvura pasi pemvura kwakakurudzira kufarira kutsvaga zvinhu, zvichiita kuti madhamu emunyu, migodhi, pasi pegungwa, uye kunyange makomba anoputika ave pfuma yezviwanikwa.
Zvakakosha kuziva kuti nyika dzakawanda dzinogadzira zvicherwa pasi rose dzakasarudza kuomesa mitemo yadzo yekusimudzira. Chile yaburitsa "National Lithium Strategy" yayo uye ichatanga kambani yemigodhi yehurumende; chirongwa cheMexico chekuisa zvicherwa zve lithium muhurumende; Indonesia inosimbisa kutonga kwayo pamusoro pezvicherwa zve nickel ore. Chile, Argentina, neBolivia, izvo zvinoumba zvinopfuura hafu yezvicherwa zve lithium pasi rose, zviri kuramba zvichibatanidzwa mukutsinhana, uye "OPEC Lithium Mine" yava kuda kubuda.
Zviwanikwa zvezvicherwa zvakakosha zvava "mafuta matsva" mumusika wesimba, uye kuchengetedzwa kwezviwanikwa zvezvicherwa kwavewo kiyi yekuvandudzwa kwesimba rakachena nguva dzose. Kusimbisa kuchengetedzwa kwezviwanikwa zvezvicherwa zvakakosha.
Zvimwe zvinosiyiwa, zvimwe zvinosimudzirwa, uye gakava pamusoro pekushandiswa kwenyukireya riri kuenderera mberi
Muna Kubvumbi wegore rino, Germany yakazivisa kuvharwa kwezviteshi zvayo zvitatu zvemagetsi enyukireya, zvichipinda zviri pamutemo munguva ye "rusununguko rwenyukireya" uye ichiva chiitiko chakakosha muindasitiri yemagetsi enyukireya yepasi rose. Chikonzero chikuru chekusiya kweGermany simba renyukireya kunetseka nezvekuchengetedzeka kwenyukireya, iyo iriwo dambudziko guru rakatarisana neindasitiri yemagetsi enyukireya yepasi rose parizvino. Pakutanga kwegore rino, chiteshi chemagetsi enyukireya cheMonticello, chaive chichishanda muUnited States kwemakore anopfuura makumi mashanu, chakavharwawo nekuda kwematambudziko ekuchengetedza.
Kudhura kwakanyanya kwemapurojekiti matsva ekuvaka zvakare "chipingamupinyi" munzira yekuvandudza simba renyukireya. Kudhura kwakanyanya kwemapurojekiti eChikamu 3 neChikamu 4 cheVogt öhler Nuclear Power Plant muUnited States inyaya yakajairika.
Kunyangwe paine matambudziko akawanda, hunhu hwekugadzira simba renyukireya hwakachena uye husina kabhoni yakawanda huchiri kuita kuti rishande nesimba repasi rose. Mukati megore rino, Japan, iyo yakasangana netsaona dzakakomba dzesimba renyukireya, yakazivisa kutangazve kwezviteshi zvesimba renyukireya kuitira kudzikamisa kuwanikwa kwesimba renyukireya; France, iyo inovimba zvakanyanya nesimba renyukireya, yakazivisa kuti ichapa mari inodarika mamiriyoni zana emaeuro muindasitiri yayo yesimba renyukireya yemuno mumakore gumi anotevera; Finland, India, uye kunyange United States vese vakataura kuti vachasimudzira indasitiri yesimba renyukireya nesimba.
Simba renyukireya rakachena uye risina kabhoni yakawanda ragara richionekwa sechishandiso chakakosha chekugadzirisa shanduko yemamiriro ekunze, uye nzira yekugadzira simba renyukireya remhando yepamusoro rave nyaya yakakosha mukushandurwa kwesimba renyika pari zvino.
Nguva yezvisaririra yekubatanidzwa kwemafuta negasi kakawanda uye kuwanikwa kwemafuta negasi haisati yapera
ExxonMobil, kambani huru yemafuta muUnited States, Chevron, kambani yechipiri pakukura kwemafuta, neWestern Oil Company dzese dzakaita kubatanidzwa kukuru nekutenga makambani gore rino, zvichiunza huwandu hwese hwekubatanidzwa kukuru nekutenga makambani muindasitiri yemafuta negasi yeNorth America kusvika pamadhora mabhiriyoni zana nemakumi maviri nemana nemazana mashanu emadhora. Indasitiri iyi inotarisira kubatanidzwa kutsva nekutenga makambani muindasitiri yemafuta negasi.
Muna Gumiguru, ExxonMobil yakazivisa kutenga kambani inogadzira shale Vanguard Natural Resources ine muridzi wayo nemutengo unodarika mabhiriyoni makumi matanhatu emadhora, zvichiratidza kutenga kwayo kukuru kubvira muna 1999. Chevron yakazivisa mumwedzi mumwe chete kuti yaizodyara mabhiriyoni makumi mashanu nematatu emadhora kuti itenge kambani inogadzira mafuta negasi yekuAmerica Hess, iyo iriyo zvakare kutenga kwayo kukuru munhoroondo. Muna Zvita, makambani emafuta ekuMadokero akazivisa kutenga kambani yemafuta negasi yeshale yekuAmerica nemutengo unodarika mabhiriyoni gumi nemaviri emadhora.
Vagadziri vakuru vemafuta negesi vari kuramba vachiwedzera mabhizinesi avo epamusoro, zvichikonzera kubatanidzwa kutsva. Makambani akawanda emagetsi achawedzera kukwikwidzana kwavo nezvinhu zvakanakisisa zvemafuta negesi kuti vave nechokwadi chekuti mafuta anowanikwa zvakanaka mumakumi emakore anotevera. Kunyangwe paine hurukuro dziri kuenderera mberi pamusoro pekuti kudiwa kwemafuta kwakanyanya kwasvika here, zvinogona kuva nechokwadi chekuti nguva yemafuta haisati yasvika kumagumo.
Kuchinja kwenhoroondo kwekudiwa kwemarasha kwasvika padanho idzva kunogona kuuya
Muna 2023, kudiwa kwemarasha pasi rose kwakasvika padanho repamusoro munhoroondo, nehuwandu hwemarasha hwaipfuura matani mabhiriyoni 8.5.
Zvose zvataurwa, kusimbiswa kuri kuitwa pakushandisa simba rakachena nenyika dziri padanho remutemo kwakaderedza kukura kwezvinodiwa pasi rose zvemarasha, asi marasha achiri "dombo rekusimbisa" remagetsi enyika dzakawanda.
Kubva pamaonero emamiriro emusika, musika wemarasha wabuda munguva yekuchinja-chinja kukuru kwemari inowanikwa nekuda kwedenda, kusawirirana pakati peRussia neUkraine nezvimwe zvinhu, uye avhareji yemitengo yemarasha pasi rose yadzikira. Kubva pamaonero ekupa, marasha eRussia ane mukana wekupinda mumusika nemutengo wakaderera nekuda kwezvirango zvakaiswa nenyika dzeEurope neAmerica; Huwandu hwemari inotengeswa kunze kwenyika dzemuno dzakadai seIndonesia, Mozambique, neSouth Africa hwawedzera, nehuwandu hwemari inotengeswa kunze kwenyika yeIndonesia hunosvika matani mamiriyoni mazana mashanu, zvichiisa rekodhi itsva yenhoroondo.
Mukuona kweInternational Energy Agency, kudiwa kwemarasha pasi rose kungave kwasvika padanho rekare nekuda kwemhedzisiro yemaitiro ekuderedza kabhoni uye mitemo munyika dzakasiyana siyana. Sezvo simba remagetsi rinogona kuvandudzwa richidarika mwero wekukura kwekuda kwemagetsi, kudiwa kwemagetsi emarasha kunogona kuratidza kudzikira, uye kushandiswa kwemarasha semafuta efossil kunotarisirwa kudzikira "muchimiro".
Nguva yekutumira: Ndira-02-2024
