Nyika muna 2023 ichiri kugumburwa pamberi pemiyedzo yakaoma. Kugaroitika kwemamiriro ekunze akaipisisa, kupararira kwemoto wesango mumakomo nemasango, uye kudengenyeka kwenyika nemafashamu kwakawanda… Zvinokurumidza kugadzirisa shanduko yemamiriro ekunze; Kupokana kweRussia neUkraine hakuna kupera, gakava rePalestine Israel ratanga zvakare, uye dambudziko rezvematongerwo enyika rakakonzera kushanduka kwemusika wesimba.
Mukati mekuchinja, shanduko yesimba reChina yakawana mhedzisiro inoshamisa, ichiita zvakanaka mukudzoreredza hupfumi hwenyika uye kusimudzira kwegirinhi.
Dhipatimendi redhipatimendi reChina Energy Daily rakaronga nhau gumi dzepamusoro dzesimba repasi rose muna 2023, vakaongorora mamiriro ezvinhu, uye vakaona maitiro ese.
Kudyidzana kweChina neUS kunotungamira vezera repasi rose mukutonga kwemamiriro ekunze
Kudyidzana kweChina neUS kunopinza simba idzva mukuita kwemamiriro ekunze epasi rose. Musi wa15 Mbudzi, vatungamiri venyika dzeChina neUnited States vakasangana kuti vataurirane pachena pamusoro penyaya huru dzine chokuita nehukama hwenyika mbiri uye runyararo nebudiriro yenyika; Nezuva rimwe chetero, nyika mbiri idzi dzakaburitsa Sunshine Town chirevo chekusimbaradza kubatana kugadzirisa dambudziko remamiriro ekunze. Nhevedzano yezviyero zvinoshanda zvinoburitsa meseji yekudyidzana kwakadzama pakati pemativi maviri pamusoro penyaya dzekushanduka kwemamiriro ekunze, uye zvakare inoisa kuvimba kwakawanda mukutonga kwemamiriro ekunze pasi rose.
Kubva muna Mbudzi 30 kusvika Zvita 13th, Musangano wechimakumi maviri nesere weMapato kuUnited Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change wakaitwa muDubai, United Arab Emirates. Mapato 198 ari kuita kondirakiti akasvika pakubvumirana kunokosha pakuongorora kwepasi rose kweChibvumirano cheParis, kurasikirwa kwemamiriro ekunze uye mari yekukuvadza, uye shanduko yakanaka uye yakaenzana. China neUnited States dziri kuwedzera kudyidzana uye kuunganidza simba panyaya dzekushanduka kwemamiriro ekunze, dzichitumira zviratidzo zvakanaka kunyika.
Geopolitical Crisis Inoenderera mberi, Energy Market Outlook haina kujeka
Kurwisana kweRussia neUkraine kwakaenderera mberi, hondo yePalestine yeIsrael yakatanga zvakare, uye dambudziko reGungwa Dzvuku rakatanga. Kubva kutanga kwegore rino, mamiriro ezvematongerwo enyika akawedzera, uye simba repasi rose rekupa uye yekuda maitiro akawedzera kugadziridzwa kwayo. Nzira yekuita sei kuchengetedza simba rave mubvunzo wenguva.
Bhanga repasi rose rinoratidza kuti kubva kutanga kwegore rino, kukanganisa kwekunetsana kwezvematongerwo enyika pamitengo yezvinhu kwave kushoma, izvo zvinogona kuratidza kugona kuri nani kwehupfumi hwepasi rose kutora kuderera kwemitengo yemafuta. Nekudaro, kana kukakavara kwezvematongerwo enyika kwawedzera, maonero emitengo yezvinhu achakurumidza kusviba. Zvinhu zvakadai sekunetsana kwegeopolitical, kudzikira kwehupfumi, kukwira kwemitengo yakakwira uye mitengo yemubereko icharamba ichikanganisa kupihwa kwemafuta epasi rose negasi uye mitengo kusvika 2024.
Huru Simba Diplomacy Inosimbisa Charm uye Energy Cooperation Kukwidziridzwa
Gore rino, diplomacy yeChina senyika huru ine hunhu hweChinese yakasimudzirwa zvakazara, ichiratidza runako rwayo, uye kusimudzira kudyidzana kwesimba repasirese pamwe nekubatsirikana pamwe nekubatsirikana pazviyero zvakawanda uye mazinga akadzama. Muna Kubvumbi, China neFrance dzakasaina zvibvumirano zvitsva zvekubatana pamafuta negesi, simba renyukireya, uye "mhepo solar hydrogen". Muna Chivabvu, yekutanga China Asia Summit yakaitwa, uye China neCentral Asia nyika dzakaramba dzichivaka "mafuta negesi + simba idzva" simba rekushandura kudyidzana. Muna Nyamavhuvhu, China neSouth Africa dzakaramba dzichidzika kudyidzana munzvimbo dzakawanda dzakakosha senge zviwanikwa zvesimba uye kukura kwegirinhi. Muna October, yechitatu “Belt and Road” International Cooperation Summit Forum yakaitwa zvinobudirira, ichiumba budiriro 458; Mumwedzi iwoyo, 5th China Russia Energy Business Forum yakaitwa, ichisaina zvibvumirano zvingangoita makumi maviri.
Zvakakodzera kutaura kuti gore rino rinocherekedza makore gumi echirongwa chekuvaka pamwe chete "Belt uye Road". Sedanho rakakosha kusimudzira kuvhurwa kweChina uye chikuva chinoshanda chekusimudzira kuvakwa kwenharaunda ine ramangwana rakagovaniswa revanhu, kubudirira kwechirongwa chekuvaka pamwe chete "Belt and Road" mumakore gumi apfuura zvakarumbidzwa zvikuru uye zvine zvazvinoreva zvinosvika kure. Kubatana kwesimba pasi pechirongwa che "Belt and Road" kwave kudzika nekuwana zvibereko zvakabereka mumakore gumi apfuura, zvichibatsira vanhu venyika nematunhu kuvaka pamwe chete, uye kubatsira kuvaka remangwana rakasvibira uye rinosanganisirwa resimba.
Kuyerera kwemvura yenyukireya yeJapan mugungwa kunoshushikana zvakanyanya nevepasirese
Kutanga kubva munaAugust 24th, mvura yakasvibiswa kubva kuFukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant muJapan ichabudiswa mugungwa, pamwe nekufungidzira kubudiswa kweinenge 31200 matani emvura yakasvibiswa yenyukireya ne 2023. Chirongwa cheJapan chekubudisa mvura ine nyukireya mugungwa chave chichienderera mberi kwemakore 30 kana kunyange kupfuura, zvichiita njodzi dzakavanzwa.
Japan yakachinja njodzi yekusvibiswa kubva mutsaona yenyukireya yeFukushima kuenda kunyika dzakavakidzana nenzvimbo dzakatenderedza, zvichikonzera kukuvadza kwechipiri kupasi, izvo zvisingakodzere kushandiswa kwerunyararo kwesimba renyukireya uye hazvigone kudzora kupararira kwekusvibiswa kwenyukireya. Nyanzvi dzepasi rose dzakaratidza kuti Japan haifanire kungotora zvakakomba zvinonetsa vanhu vayo, asiwo kutarisana nekushushikana kwakasimba kwenharaunda dzepasirese, kunyanya nyika dzakavakidzana. Iine hunhu uye hunovaka maitiro, Japan inofanirwa kutaurirana nevatori vechikamu uye kutora zvakakomba zvavanoda zviri pamutemo zvekuzivikanwa kwekukuvadzwa uye muripo.
Kukurumidza kuwedzera kwesimba rakachena muChina, kunowedzera simba rayo rekupayona
Pasi pedingindira regirinhi uye yakaderera-kabhoni, simba rakachena rakaramba richikura zvakanyanya gore rino. Zvinoenderana nedata kubva kuInternational Energy Agency, huwandu hwepasi rose hwakaiswa hwesimba rinogoneka hunotarisirwa kuwedzera ne107 gigawatts pakupera kwegore rino, nehwerengedzo yakaiswa inodarika 440 gigawatts, zvichiratidza kuwedzera kukuru munhoroondo.
Panguva imwe cheteyo, mari yepasi rose yemagetsi inotarisirwa kunge inosvika 2.8 trillion US dollars gore rino, uye mari yemagetsi yakachena inopfuura 1.7 trillion US dollars, ichipfuura mari yemafuta emafuta emafuta.
Zvakakosha kucherechedza kuti China, iyo yakagara iri pekutanga pasirese maererano nemhepo uye solar yakaiswa simba kwemakore mazhinji, iri kutamba basa rekupayona uye rinotungamira.
Kusvika pari zvino, ma turbines emhepo eChina akatengeswa kune dzimwe nyika nematunhu makumi mana nepfumbamwe, nekugadzirwa kwe turbine yemhepo kunodarika makumi mashanu muzana emusika wepasi rose. Pakati pemabhizinesi gumi epamusoro epasi rose emhepo turbine, matanhatu anobva kuChina. Indasitiri yeChina yephotovoltaic inonyanya kutariswa muhukama hwakanyanya senge silicon wafers, bhatiri maseru, uye modules, inogara pamusoro pe80% yemugove wemusika wepasi rose, zvichinyatso kuratidza kucherechedzwa kwemusika kweChinese tekinoroji.
Iyo indasitiri inofanotaura kuti panosvika 2030, iyo nyika simba system ichaita shanduko dzakakura, neine renewable energy accounting ingangoita 50% yepasi rose magetsi chimiro. Kumira kumberi, China Zhengyuanyuan inoramba ichiburitsa simba rakasvibira rekushandura simba repasi rose.
Kuchinja kwesimba kweEurope neAmerica kwakatarisana nezvipingamupinyi, zvipingamupinyi zvekutengeserana zvinomutsa kunetseka
Kunyange hazvo huwandu hwepasi rose hwakaiswa hwesimba rinowanikwazve huri kukura nekukurumidza, kusimukira kweindasitiri yesimba rakachena munyika dzeEurope neAmerica kunowanzo vhiringwa, uye nyaya dzezvekutengesa dziri kuramba dzichimutsa tsinga dzenyika dzeEurope neAmerica.
Kukanganisika kwemitengo yakakwira uye kuvhiringwa kweketani yemidziyo yemagetsi kwakonzera kurasikirwa kwevagadziri vemhepo yemhepo yeEuropean neAmerica, zvichikonzera kuwedzera zvishoma nezvishoma uye nhevedzano yevagadziri vanobuda kubva kumapurojekiti emagetsi emhepo kuUnited States neUnited Kingdom.
Mumunda wesimba rezuva, mumwedzi misere yekutanga yegore rino, 15 vagadziri vakuru veEurope vakabudisa huwandu hwe1 gigawatt ye solar modules, chete 11% yenguva yakafanana gore rapera.
Panguva imwecheteyo, vakuru veEU vakataura pachena kuti vatange ongororo yeanti subsidy vachipokana nezvigadzirwa zvemagetsi emhepo zveChinese. The Inflation Reduction Act yakadzikwa neUnited States inowedzera kurambidza zvigadzirwa zvekunze zvephotovoltaic kupinda mumusika weUS, kunonoka kudyara, kuvaka, uye kukurumidza kwekubatanidza grid yemapurojekiti emagetsi ezuva muUnited States.
Kutarisana nekushanduka kwemamiriro ekunze uye kuwana shanduko yesimba haigoni kuparadzaniswa nekubatana kwenyika. Nyika dzeEurope neAmerica dzinoramba dzichiisa zvipingamupinyi zvokutengeserana, izvo chaizvoizvo “zvinokuvadza kune vamwe panzvimbo pezvido zvako.” Chete nekuchengetedza kuvhurika kwemusika wepasirese isu tinogona pamwe chete kukurudzira kudzikiswa kwemhepo uye mutengo wezuva uye kuwana kukunda-kukunda mamiriro emapato ese.
Kiyi yemamineral inoda kuwedzera, kuchengetedzeka kwekupa kune hanya zvakanyanya
Kukwidziridzwa kwepamusoro kwezvicherwa zvakakosha kuri kupisa zvisati zvamboitika. Kukura kuri kuputika mukushandiswa kwesimba rakachena tekinoroji kwafambisa kuwedzera kwekuda kwemaminerari akakosha anomiririrwa nelithium, nickel, cobalt, uye mhangura. Kukwira kwekudyara kwekudyara kwezvicherwa zvakakosha kwakakura nekukurumidza, uye nyika dzakawedzera zvakanyanya kukurumidza kusimudzira kwezvicherwa zvemuno.
Tichitora lithium bhatiri raw materials semuenzaniso, kubva 2017 kusvika 2022, global lithium demand yakawedzera kanenge katatu, cobalt kudiwa kwakawedzera ne70%, uye nickel kudiwa kwakawedzera ne40%. Kushaikwa kukuru kwemvura yakadzika kwaita kuti vanhu vafarire kuongorora, zvichiita kuti madziva emunyu, migodhi, pasi pegungwa, uye kunyange makomba anoputika ave dura reupfumi.
Zvakakosha kucherechedza kuti nyika dzakawanda dzinogadzira zvicherwa pasi rese dzakasarudza kuomesa mitemo yekusimudzira. Chile inoburitsa "National Lithium Strategy" uye ichagadzira kambani yehurumende yemaminerari; Chikumbiro cheMexico chekugadzirisa zviwanikwa zvemigodhi yelithium; Indonesia inosimbisa hutongi hwayo hwehurumende pamusoro pezviwanikwa zve nickel ore. Chile, Argentina, neBolivia, iyo inodarika hafu yehuwandu hwepasi rose yelithium zviwanikwa, iri kuramba ichichinjana, uye "OPEC Lithium Mine" yave kuda kubuda.
Yakakosha zvicherwa zviwanikwa zvave "mafuta matsva" mumusika wesimba, uye chengetedzo yemaminerari ekupa yavewo kiyi yekusimudzira kwakasimba kwesimba rakachena. Kusimbaradza kuchengetedzwa kwezvicherwa zvakakosha zvakakosha.
Mamwe akasiiwa, mamwe anosimudzirwa, uye kukakavara pamusoro pekushandisa kwenyukireya kunopfuurira
Muna Kubvumbi wegore rino, Germany yakazivisa kuvharwa kwemagetsi ayo matatu ekupedzisira emagetsi enyukireya, kupinda zviri pamutemo "nguva yemahara yenyukireya" uye kuita chiitiko chakakosha muindasitiri yesimba renyukireya yepasi rose. Chikonzero chikuru chekusiya kweGermany simba renyukireya kutyira kuchengetedzwa kwenyukireya, rinovawo dambudziko guru rakatarisana neindasitiri yemagetsi epasi rose parizvino. Mukutanga kwegore rino, Monticello nuclear power plant, yanga ichishanda muUnited States kweanopfuura hafu yezana, yakavharwawo nekuda kwenyaya dzekuchengetedza.
Kudhura kwezvirongwa zvitsva zvekuvaka zvakare "chipingamupinyi" munzira yekugadzira simba renyukireya. Kudhura kwakanyanya kwemapurojekiti eYuniti 3 uye Chikamu 4 cheVogt ö hler Nuclear Power Plant muUnited States inyaya yakajairika.
Kunyangwe paine matambudziko mazhinji, kuchena uye kuderera-kabhoni maitiro ekugadzira magetsi enyukireya achiri kuita kuti ishande padanho resimba repasi rose. Mukati megore rino, Japan, iyo yakasangana netsaona dzakakomba dzesimba renyukireya, yakazivisa kutangwazve kwegwenya remagetsi enyukireya kuitira kudzikamisa kugoverwa kwemagetsi; France, iyo inovimba zvikuru nesimba renyukireya, yakazivisa kuti ichapa mari inopfuura mamiriyoni zana eeuro mukutsigira indasitiri yayo yemagetsi enyukireya mukati memakore gumi anotevera; Finland, India, uye kunyange United States vose vakataura kuti vachakudziridza nesimba indasitiri yemagetsi enyukireya.
Simba renyukireya rakachena uye rakaderera-kabhoni ragara richionekwa sechishandiso chakakosha chekugadzirisa kushanduka kwemamiriro ekunze, uye magadzirirwo emagetsi enyukireya nemhando yepamusoro yave nyaya yakakosha munyika ino shanduko yesimba.
Iyo nguva yefossil yekudzokororwa kukuru kusanganisa uye kutorwa kweoiri negasi haisati yapera
ExxonMobil, kambani huru yemafuta muUnited States, Chevron, yechipiri yakakura kambani yemafuta, uye Western Oil Kambani vese vakaita kubatanidza kukuru uye kutora gore rino, zvichiunza huwandu hwese hwekubatana kukuru uye kuwanikwa muNorth America mafuta negasi indasitiri kusvika kumadhora bhiriyoni zana nemakumi maviri neshanu. Iyo indasitiri inotarisira nyowani nyowani yekubatanidza uye kutora muindasitiri yemafuta negesi.
Muna Gumiguru, ExxonMobil yakazivisa kutorwa kwevaridzi veshale Vanguard Natural Resources inoda kusvika mabhiriyoni makumi matanhatu emadhora, zvichiratidza kutora kwayo kukuru kubva 1999. Chevron yakazivisa mumwedzi iwoyo kuti ichaisa madhora bhiriyoni makumi mashanu nematatu kuti iwane mugadziri wemafuta negasi wekuAmerica Hess, inova zvakare kuwanikwa kwayo kukuru munhoroondo. Muna Zvita, makambani emafuta ekuMadokero akazivisa kutora kweUS shale oiri uye gasi kambani yemadhora gumi nemaviri emadhora.
Vagadziri vemafuta makuru negasi vari kugara vachiwedzera nzvimbo yavo yebhizimusi rekumusoro, zvichimutsa fungu idzva rekubatana. Makambani emagetsi akawanda achawedzera kukwikwidza kwavo kwemafuta akanakisa uye gasi zviwanikwa kuti ave nechokwadi chekupihwa kwakagadzikana kwemakumi mashoma anotevera. Kunyangwe pave paine nhaurirano irikuenderera pamusoro pekuti kudiwa kwemafuta epamusoro kwasvika here, zvinogona kuve nechokwadi kuti zera rezvisaririra harisati rasvika kumagumo.
Iyo nhoroondo yekushanduka kwekudiwa kwemarasha kusvika kune imwe yakakwirira inogona kuuya
Muna 2023, kudiwa kwemarasha epasi rose kwakasvika padanho idzva renhoroondo, nehuwandu hwehuwandu hunodarika matani mabhiriyoni masere.
Pakazara, kusimbiswa kwakaiswa pasimba rakachena nenyika padanho rezvematongerwo enyika kwadzikisira chiyero chekukura kwepasi rose kudiwa kwemarasha, asi marasha anoramba ari "ballast dombo" renyika zhinji 'simba masisitimu.
Kubva pamaonero emamiriro emusika, musika wemarasha wakabva wabuda panguva yekuchinjika kwekutengesa kwakakonzerwa nedenda, mhirizhonga yeRussia-Ukraine nezvimwe zvinhu, uye avhareji yemitengo yemarasha pasi rose yadzikira. Kubva pakuona kwekugovera, marasha eRussia anowanzopinda mumusika nemutengo wakaderedzwa nekuda kwezvirango zvakatemerwa nenyika dzeEurope neAmerica; Huwandu hwenyika dzinogadzira marasha kunze kwenyika dzakaita seIndonesia, Mozambique, neSouth Africa hwawedzera, uye huwandu hwemarasha eIndonesia ekutengesa kunze kwenyika hunosvika matani 500 miriyoni, zvichiratidza nhoroondo itsva.
Sekuona kweInternational Energy Agency, kudiwa kwemarasha epasi rose kunogona kunge kwasvika pakuchinja kwenhoroondo nekuda kwekukanganisa kwemaitiro ekuderedza kabhoni munyika dzakasiyana siyana. Sezvo huwandu hwakaiswa hwesimba rinodzokororwa hunopfuura mwero wekukura kwekudiwa kwemagetsi, kudiwa kwemagetsi emarasha kunogona kuratidza kuderera, uye kushandiswa kwemarasha semafuta efossil kunotarisirwa kuve nekuderera kwe "chimiro".
Nguva yekutumira: Jan-02-2024
