Pamene kubwezeretsa kwachuma kukukumana ndi vuto la mayendedwe, ndi nyengo yotentha yachisanu ikuyandikira, kupanikizika kwa makampani opanga mphamvu ku Ulaya kukukwera, ndipo kutsika kwa mitengo ya gasi ndi magetsi kukukula kwambiri, ndipo palibe chizindikiro chosonyeza kuti izi zidzasintha pakapita nthawi.
Poyang'anizana ndi mavuto, maboma ambiri a ku Ulaya achitapo kanthu, makamaka pogwiritsa ntchito misonkho, kupereka mavoti ogwiritsira ntchito komanso kuthana ndi malingaliro a malonda a carbon.
Nthawi yozizira siinafike, ndipo mtengo wa gasi ndi mafuta afika pamtengo watsopano
Pamene nyengo ikuzizira kwambiri, mitengo ya gasi ndi magetsi ku Ulaya yakwera kwambiri. Akatswiri nthawi zambiri amaneneratu kuti kuchepa kwa magetsi m'mayiko onse a ku Ulaya kudzangowonjezereka.
Reuters inanena kuti kuyambira August, mitengo ya gasi ya ku Ulaya yakwera kwambiri, ikuyendetsa mitengo ya magetsi, malasha amagetsi ndi magetsi ena. Monga chizindikiro cha malonda a gasi achilengedwe ku Ulaya, mtengo wa gasi wapakati pa TTF ku Netherlands unakwera kufika pa 175 euro / MWh pa September 21, kuwirikiza kanayi kuposa mu March. Ndi gasi wosowa, mitengo ya gasi ku TTF center ku Netherlands ikukwerabe.
Kuperewera kwa magetsi ndi kukwera kwa mitengo yamagetsi sikulinso nkhani. Bungwe la International Energy Agency linanena m'mawu a September 21 kuti m'masabata aposachedwa, mitengo yamagetsi ku Ulaya yakwera kwambiri m'zaka zopitirira khumi ndipo yakwera kupitirira 100 euro / megawatt ola m'misika yambiri.
Mitengo yamagetsi ku Germany ndi France idakwera ndi 36% ndi 48% motsatana. Mitengo yamagetsi ku UK yakwera kuchoka pa £ 147 / MWh kufika pa £ 385 / MWh m'milungu yochepa. Mtengo wapakati wamagetsi ku Spain ndi Portugal unafika 175 euro / MWh, katatu kuposa miyezi isanu ndi umodzi yapitayo.
Italy panopa ndi mmodzi wa mayiko European ndi apamwamba pafupifupi mtengo malonda magetsi. Bungwe la ku Italy la mphamvu zamagetsi ndi Environmental Supervision Bureau posachedwapa linatulutsa lipoti lakuti kuyambira mwezi wa October, ndalama za magetsi za mabanja wamba ku Italy zikuyembekezeka kukwera ndi 29,8%, ndipo ndalama za gasi zidzakwera ndi 14,4%. Ngati boma sililowererapo kuti liwononge mitengo, mitengo iwiri yomwe ili pamwambayi idzakwera ndi 45% ndi 30% motsatira.
Othandizira magetsi asanu ndi atatu ku Germany adakweza kapena kulengeza zakukwera kwamitengo, ndikuwonjezeka kwapakati pa 3.7%. UFC que choisir, bungwe la ogula la ku France, linachenjezanso kuti mabanja omwe akugwiritsa ntchito kutentha kwa magetsi m'dzikoli azilipira pafupifupi 150 euro chaka chilichonse chaka chino. Kumayambiriro kwa 2022, mitengo yamagetsi ku France imatha kukweranso kwambiri.
Ndi kukwera mtengo kwa magetsi, mtengo wa moyo ndi kupanga mabizinesi ku Europe wakwera kwambiri. Reuters inanena kuti ndalama za magetsi za anthu okhalamo zakwera, ndipo mabizinesi a mankhwala ndi feteleza ku Britain, Norway ndi mayiko ena achepetsa kapena kuyimitsa kupanga imodzi pambuyo pa mnzake.
Goldman Sachs anachenjeza kuti kukwera mtengo kwa magetsi kudzawonjezera chiopsezo cha kuzimitsidwa kwa magetsi m'nyengo yozizira ino.
Mayiko 02 aku Europe alengeza njira zoyankhira
Pofuna kuthetsa vutoli, mayiko ambiri a ku Ulaya akuyesetsa kuthana ndi vutoli.
Malinga ndi katswili wa zachuma ku Britain komanso BBC, Spain ndi Britain ndi mayiko omwe akhudzidwa kwambiri ndi kukwera kwa mitengo yamagetsi ku Ulaya. Mu Seputembala, boma lamgwirizano motsogozedwa ndi Pedro Sanchez, Prime Minister wa chipani cha Socialist ku Spain, adalengeza njira zingapo zochepetsera kukwera mtengo kwamagetsi. Izi zikuphatikizapo kuyimitsa 7% ya msonkho wopangira magetsi komanso kuchepetsa msonkho wamtengo wapatali wa anthu ena ogwiritsa ntchito magetsi kuchoka pa 21% kufika pa 10% mu theka lachiwiri la chaka chino. Boma lidalengezanso zochepetsa kwakanthawi phindu lomwe makampani opanga magetsi amapeza. Boma lati cholinga chake ndikuchepetsa mtengo wamagetsi ndi 20% pakutha kwa 2021.
Vuto lamphamvu komanso zovuta zomwe zimayambitsidwa ndi brexit zakhudza kwambiri UK. Kuyambira Ogasiti, makampani khumi a gasi ku UK atseka, zomwe zimakhudza makasitomala opitilira 1.7 miliyoni. Pakali pano, boma la Britain likuchita msonkhano wadzidzidzi ndi angapo ogulitsa magetsi kuti akambirane momwe angathandizire ogulitsa kupirira zovuta zomwe zimadza chifukwa cha mitengo ya gasi wachilengedwe.
Italy, yomwe imalandira 40 peresenti ya mphamvu zake kuchokera ku gasi, imakhala pachiwopsezo chachikulu chakukwera kwamitengo ya gasi. Pakalipano, boma lawononga pafupifupi ma euro 1.2 biliyoni kuti liwongolere kukwera kwamitengo yamagetsi apakhomo ndipo linalonjeza kuti lipereka ma euro 3 biliyoni m'miyezi ikubwerayi.
Prime Minister Mario Draghi adanena kuti m'miyezi itatu ikubwerayi, zina mwazomwe zimatchedwa kuti ndalama zadongosolo zidzachotsedwa ku ngongole za gasi ndi magetsi. Iwo amayenera kuonjezera misonkho kuti athandize ndi kusintha kwa mphamvu zowonjezera.
Pulezidenti wa ku France Jean Castel adanena m'mawu a televizioni pa September 30 kuti boma la France lidzaonetsetsa kuti mitengo ya gasi ndi magetsi sizidzauka kumapeto kwa nyengo yozizira. Kuphatikiza apo, boma la France linanena masabata awiri apitawo kuti mu Disembala chaka chino, "cheke champhamvu" cha ma euro 100 panyumba iliyonse chidzaperekedwa kwa mabanja pafupifupi 5.8 miliyoni omwe amapeza ndalama zochepa kuti achepetse zovuta zogulira mabanja.
Non EU Norway ndi amodzi mwa omwe amapanga mafuta ndi gasi ku Europe, koma amagwiritsidwa ntchito kwambiri potumiza kunja. Ndi 1.4% yokha ya magetsi a mdziko muno amapangidwa ndi kuyatsa mafuta ndi zinyalala, 5.8% ndi mphamvu yamphepo ndi 92.9% ndi mphamvu yamadzi. Kampani ya equinor energy ku Norway yavomera kuti ionjezeke ma cubic metres 2 biliyoni a gasi wachilengedwe ku 2022 kuti athandizire kufunikira kwakukula ku Europe ndi UK.
Ndi maboma a Spain, Italy ndi mayiko ena akufuna kuti vuto la mphamvu likhazikitsidwe pamsonkhano wotsatira wa atsogoleri a EU, EU ikupanga chitsogozo cha njira zochepetsera zomwe Mayiko Amembala angatenge pawokha malinga ndi malamulo a EU.
Komabe, BBC idati palibe chomwe chikuwonetsa kuti EU itengapo gawo lalikulu komanso lolunjika.
03 zinthu zambiri zimapangitsa kuti pakhale mphamvu zowonjezera, zomwe sizingathetsedwe mu 2022
Kodi n'chiyani chikuyambitsa vuto lamakono la ku Ulaya?
Akatswiri akukhulupirira kuti kukwera kwa mitengo ya magetsi ku Ulaya kwadzetsa nkhawa za kuzimitsidwa kwa magetsi, makamaka chifukwa cha kusalinganika pakati pa magetsi ndi kufunika kwake. Chifukwa cha kuchira kwapang’onopang’ono kwa dziko ku mliriwu, kupangidwa m’maiko ena sikunachedwe bwino, kufunidwa n’kwamphamvu, kusowa kwa zinthu sikukwanira, ndipo kupezeka ndi kufunidwa sikuli bwino, zomwe zikudzetsa nkhaŵa za kuzimitsidwa kwa magetsi.
Kuperewera kwa magetsi ku Europe kumagwirizananso ndi kapangidwe ka mphamvu zamagetsi. Cao Yuanzheng, wapampando wa BOC International Research Corporation ndi wofufuza wamkulu wa Chongyang Institute of finance of Renmin University of China, ananena kuti gawo la mphamvu zopangira mphamvu ku Ulaya zikupitiriza kuwonjezeka, koma chifukwa cha chilala ndi zovuta zina za nyengo, kuchuluka kwa mphamvu ya mphepo ndi mphamvu ya hydropower yachepa. Pofuna kudzaza kusiyana kumeneku, kufunikira kwa kupanga magetsi otenthetsera kunawonjezeka. Komabe, monga mphamvu zoyera ku Ulaya ndi United States zidakali m'kati mwa kusintha, mphamvu zotentha zomwe zimagwiritsidwa ntchito pachimake chadzidzidzi kumeta malo osungira magetsi ndizochepa, ndipo mphamvu yotenthayi singapangidwe mu nthawi yochepa, zomwe zimapangitsa kuti pakhale kusiyana kwa magetsi.
Katswiri wina wa zachuma wa ku Britain ananenanso kuti mphamvu za mphepo zimapanga gawo limodzi mwa magawo khumi a mphamvu za ku Ulaya, kuwirikiza kaŵiri mphamvu za mayiko monga Britain. Komabe, kusokonekera kwanyengo kwaposachedwapa kwachepetsa mphamvu ya mphamvu yamphepo ku Ulaya.
Pankhani ya gasi wachilengedwe, gasi wachilengedwe ku Europe chaka chino adatsikanso kuposa momwe amayembekezera, ndipo kuchuluka kwa gasi kunatsika. Katswiri wazachuma adanenanso kuti ku Europe kunali nyengo yozizira komanso yayitali chaka chatha, ndipo zida zamagesi zachilengedwe zidatsika, pafupifupi 25% kutsika kuposa nkhokwe zanthawi yayitali.
Magwero aŵiri aakulu a gasi achilengedwe ku Ulaya anakhudzidwanso. Pafupifupi gawo limodzi mwa magawo atatu a gasi wachilengedwe ku Europe amaperekedwa ndi Russia ndi gawo limodzi mwa magawo asanu kuchokera ku Norway, koma njira zonse zoperekera gasi zimakhudzidwa. Mwachitsanzo, moto pa fakitale yokonza zinthu ku Siberia unachititsa kuti gasi achepe kwambiri kuposa mmene ankayembekezera. Malinga ndi a Reuters, Norway, yachiwiri yayikulu kwambiri yopereka gasi ku Europe, imachepetsedwanso ndi kukonza malo opangira mafuta.
Monga mphamvu yaikulu yopangira magetsi ku Ulaya, gasi wachilengedwe ndi wosakwanira, ndipo magetsi amawonjezeredwa. Kuphatikiza apo, kukhudzidwa ndi nyengo yoipa, mphamvu zongowonjezwdwa monga hydropower ndi mphamvu yamphepo sizingayikidwe pamwamba, zomwe zimapangitsa kuti pakhale kusowa kwakukulu kwamagetsi.
Kusanthula kwa Reuters kumakhulupirira kuti kukwera kwamitengo yamagetsi, makamaka mitengo yamafuta achilengedwe, kwachititsa kuti mtengo wamagetsi ku Europe ukhale wapamwamba kwambiri kwazaka zambiri, ndipo izi sizingachitike pofika kumapeto kwa chaka, ndipo ngakhale mawonekedwe amagetsi olimba sangachepetsedwe mu 2022.
Bloomberg idaneneratunso kuti kutsika kwa gasi ku Europe, kutsika kwa mapaipi a gasi komanso kufunikira kwakukulu ku Asia ndizomwe zimayambitsa kukwera kwamitengo. Ndi kukwera kwachuma munthawi ya mliri, kuchepa kwa ntchito zapakhomo m'maiko aku Europe, mpikisano wowopsa pamsika wapadziko lonse wa LNG, komanso kukwera kwa kufunikira kwamagetsi opangira magetsi opangidwa ndi mpweya chifukwa cha kusinthasintha kwamitengo ya mpweya, zinthu izi zitha kupangitsa kuti gasi wachilengedwe azikhala wovuta mu 2022.
Nthawi yotumiza: Oct-13-2021
